Onshoring and Nearshoring(回流和近岸外包)
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Fed policy will be part of what drives equity markets higher, says Morgan Stanley's Chris Toomey
Youtube· 2025-11-07 21:22
Market Overview - Equity markets have risen approximately 30% to 40% since liberation day, with significant performance in high beta and high volatility stocks, particularly in October [2] - There is a prevailing sentiment of profit-taking among investors as the market digests recent gains [2] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - There is a 100% expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, although concerns exist regarding the labor market data, particularly from Challenger numbers [3][4] - The Fed's policy and fiscal measures, including a significant bill flowing into the economy, are expected to influence market dynamics [5] M&A and IPO Activity - M&A activity has increased over 40% year-over-year, and there is a resurgence of IPOs entering the market, contributing to positive market sentiment [5] AI Trade and Earnings - Earnings reports have shown significant beats, with earnings being approximately two times higher than normal, indicating strong demand [8] - Comparisons are being made between current tech valuations and those from the 1990s, with current tech trading at about 30 times earnings compared to 60 times in the past [8][9] Infrastructure and Energy Sector - There is a noted lack of infrastructure investment in the energy sector, which has only seen a 5% to 6% increase, compared to a 20% rise in utilities [11] - The need for increased capacity for AI, onshoring, and nearshoring is expected to drive growth in infrastructure investments [12] Private Market Opportunities - The private market, particularly in infrastructure and smaller companies, is viewed as a key area for investment, with over 1,500 private companies now classified as unicorns [13][14]