It's time for the big three. Three stocks, three charts, three trades. Rick Dat will take us through the charts. Here to take us through the trades today, Don Kaufman, the co-founder at TheOT Trade.Great to have you both with us. Don, we'll start the same way we always do. Big picture thought on the markets.I did think we might see a bit more reaction to the State of the Union last night, but a pretty measured response this morning. >> Yeah, you know what. Uh, yeah, that's that's actually a great place to s ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, adjusted EPS increased by 68% and adjusted EBITDA rose by 51% compared to 2024 [8] - For Q4 2025, net income was $117 million and adjusted EBITDA was $269 million, bringing full-year net income to $322 million and adjusted EBITDA to $901 million [37][38] - The year-end leverage ratio was 2.7x, down from 3.3x in Q4 2024, indicating improved cash-generating capacity [11][45] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Contract operations revenue for Q4 2025 was $327 million, consistent with Q3 2025, with adjusted gross margin percentage expanding to approximately 78% [40][41] - Aftermarket services segment reported Q4 2025 revenue of $50 million, down from Q3 but up from $40 million a year ago, with adjusted gross margin percentage at 24% [42] - Operating horsepower declined by approximately 80,000 sequentially due to asset sales, totaling 325,000 horsepower sold in 2025 [24][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. natural gas volumes are expected to increase incrementally in 2026, particularly in the Permian Basin, where gas volumes are projected to grow at mid-single-digit rates [17] - LNG exports are anticipated to grow in 2026, with an additional 2 BCF per day of export capacity coming online [18][19] - The company has a substantial backlog for 2026, with 85% contracted and units already booked for 2027 delivery [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The strategic focus for 2026 includes investing in natural gas infrastructure, maximizing service reliability, and maintaining disciplined capital allocation [12][13][15] - The company aims to enhance its fleet through disciplined portfolio actions and has completed two accretive acquisitions in 18 months [10] - Continued investment in technology, including digital tools and machine learning, is expected to improve service quality and operational efficiency [14][110] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of the natural gas infrastructure sector, anticipating sustained demand and earnings growth opportunities [16][20] - The company expects to maintain high utilization rates above 95% due to strong demand for natural gas [21][98] - Management acknowledged challenges in the supply chain but remains optimistic about meeting customer needs for 2026 and beyond [60][61] Other Important Information - The company returned $212 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025, a 70% increase year-over-year [11] - The fourth quarter dividend was increased to $0.22 per share, reflecting a 5% increase from the previous quarter and a 16% increase year-over-year [31][47] - Total capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be approximately $400 million-$445 million, with growth CapEx between $250 million and $275 million [52] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth CapEx guidance and organic horsepower addition - Management indicated that the CapEx should translate into about 170,000 horsepower to be added in 2026, with approximately 60% expected to start up in the first half of the year [59] Question: Lead times and pricing power - Lead times for gas drive equipment have extended significantly, but the company is well-positioned to meet customer needs for 2026 [60][61] Question: M&A opportunities and capital allocation - Management remains open to M&A opportunities, particularly in the compression sector, while also focusing on returning capital to shareholders [68][74] Question: Asset sales and non-core assets - The company has a disciplined approach to asset management, selling non-core assets while maintaining a focus on fleet quality [81][84] Question: Electric motor drive compression demand - Demand for electric motor drive remains strong, though it is subject to competition for power and customer prioritization [85] Question: Growth in aftermarket services - Management expects growth in aftermarket services to be more selective and constrained by labor availability, focusing on profitability [118]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The underlying Return on Tangible Equity for 2025 was 14.7%, with record annual income of $20.9 billion, up 8% year-on-year [3][5] - Profit before tax increased by 18% to $7.9 billion, with earnings per share rising by 37% [12][21] - The full-year net interest income (NII) was $11.2 billion, up 1%, while non-NII increased by 13% year-over-year [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Corporate and Institutional Banking (CIB) income was $12.4 billion, up 4%, with Global Banking up 15% and Global Markets up 12% [22][23] - Wealth and Retail Banking (WRB) income was $8.5 billion, up 6%, driven by a 24% increase in Wealth Solutions [24][30] - The affluent segment saw a cumulative total of $52 billion in net new money for 2025, reflecting a 14% growth in affluent AUM [24][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Underlying customer deposits increased by 12% in the year, with growth in CASA and term deposits across WRB and CIB [20] - Risk-weighted assets were $258 billion, up 4% in 2025, with a CET1 ratio of 14.1% [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to shift to reporting on a reported basis, moving away from underlying financials to provide clearer financial disclosures [6][25] - The focus remains on sustainable growth, with a commitment to maintaining a high-performance culture and optimizing resources [7][29] - The company aims to create a distinctive and high-performing institution that delivers growth across all dimensions for clients and shareholders [36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed confidence in the resilience of global trade and capital flows despite geopolitical tensions and market volatility [2][4] - The outlook for 2026 anticipates income growth at the lower end of the historical 5-7% range, with a focus on maintaining a statutory return on tangible equity of greater than 12% [25][26] Other Important Information - A new $1.5 billion share buyback was announced, alongside a 65% increase in the full-year dividend per share [4][21] - The company has mobilized $157 billion in sustainable finance since 2021, aiming for $300 billion by 2030 [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: On investments and account opening capacity in wealth - The company is currently delivering 60,000 new clients per quarter without capacity constraints, with ongoing investments to remove bottlenecks [39][41] Question: On episodic income performance in Q4 - Q4 episodic income was weak due to large client transactions, but overall growth in financial markets remains strong [46][49] Question: On net interest income and HIBOR impact - The majority of the NII increase in Q4 was due to HIBOR movements, and Q4 should not be used as a baseline for future projections [61][65] Question: On guidance for income growth and dividend payout ratio - The company expects double-digit growth in non-interest income, with a focus on broad-based growth across all business lines [71][84]

Financial Performance and Key Metrics - Total revenues in Q4 2025 increased by 7.1%, with mobile service revenue growing by 7% and fixed services by 5.4% [6][7] - EBITDA grew by 8.1% year-over-year, with a margin of 42.9%, while excluding concession migration effects, EBITDA advanced by 17.7% [6][20] - Net income for 2025 reached BRL 7.2 billion, reflecting a double-digit growth, and free cash flow increased by 11.4% to BRL 9.2 billion [6][23] - The company paid out BRL 6.4 billion to shareholders in 2025, achieving a payout ratio of 103.4% [7][24] Business Line Performance - The postpaid mobile segment saw a 6.5% year-over-year increase, reaching 70.8 million customers, representing 69% of the mobile base [5][10] - Fiber connections reached 7.8 million, with a footprint extending to 31 million homes, and FTTH accesses grew by 12% year-over-year [11][12] - New businesses generated a 27% revenue increase, now accounting for 12.1% of total revenues, with significant contributions from B2C and B2B solutions [9][14] Market Performance - The mobile customer base reached 103 million, with a 0.7% year-over-year increase, and 5G customers grew to 23.1 million, improving the take-up ratio to 27.8% [10][11] - B2B revenues amounted to BRL 13.5 billion, up 13.7% year-over-year, with digital B2B growing by 29.5% [14][15] - The fiber market share increased from 18.8% to 19.3% year-over-year, with a net addition of 834,000 customers [77] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company focuses on convergence, with 62.7% of FTTH customers being convergent, and aims to drive more customers to the Vivo Total offering [86][89] - The competitive environment in the fiber market remains fragmented, with potential for consolidation to improve sustainability [78][79] - The company is committed to maintaining a disciplined capital allocation strategy while exploring opportunities for M&A to strengthen its fiber footprint [93][96] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about future net income growth, driven by stable EBITDA growth and reduced depreciation starting in mid-2026 [30][31] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency and customer engagement, with expectations for significant cost savings [90][91] - The management remains focused on optimizing CapEx and improving the ratio of CapEx to revenues while continuing to invest in infrastructure [36][37] Other Important Information - The company achieved recognition for its sustainability efforts, ranking among the top companies in various global assessments [16][17] - The board approved a new share buyback program of up to BRL 1 billion, to be executed until February 2027 [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Distribution strategy for 2026 - Management discussed the mix between buybacks, interest on capital, and capital reduction, emphasizing a commitment to distribute at least 100% of net income [27][28] Question: CapEx outlook for 2026 - Management highlighted ongoing CapEx optimization efforts and the importance of maintaining a balance between infrastructure investment and revenue growth [35][36] Question: Competitive environment in mobile - Management noted a stable mobile market share and emphasized the importance of retaining customers and growing ARPU without engaging in price wars [94][95] Question: Lease expenses reduction - Management explained the reduction in lease expenses due to ongoing renegotiations and expressed optimism about future trends [50][54] Question: Growth in B2B segment - Management confirmed strong growth in B2B revenues and highlighted the importance of digital services in driving future growth [68][69]

面对市场关于AI投资回报率的质疑以及对"AI泡沫"的担忧，谷歌高管团队从技术演进周期、商业化数据 验证以及未来宏观经济影响三个维度进行了详细阐述。皮查伊在对话中透露，谷歌云业务的积压订单同 比增长了一倍，达到2400亿美元。 回应"房间里的大象"：这不是泡沫，是新基建 随着科技巨头在AI基础设施上的资本开支不断攀升，华尔街对于成本回收周期的焦虑日益增加。面对 主持人关于"CEO们如何向董事会证明成本合理性"的提问，皮查伊直言不讳地将当下的AI时刻比作历史 上的重大基建周期。皮查伊表示： "在某些语境下，有人谈到这是工业革命，但速度快10倍，规模大10倍。" 他将当前的AI投资类比为美国的铁路系统或国家公路系统，认为这些都是具有极高杠杆效应的投资， 能够在此基础上推动巨大的增长和价值。 为了佐证这一观点，皮查伊披露了核心数据亮点： "仅云业务在过去一年，积压订单就同比增长了一倍，达到2400亿美元。这表明了另一方面的回报潜 力。因此，我们正在投资以满足这一需求。" 谷歌核心管理层齐聚印度，在回应市场对巨额资本开支担忧的同时，披露了关键业务数据，并将当前的 AI浪潮比作"速度快10倍的工业革命"。 2月18日，在 ...

（原标题："谷歌天团"反击AI泡沫质疑：这是工业革命 但速度快10倍、规模大10倍） 谷歌核心管理层齐聚印度，在回应市场对巨额资本开支担忧的同时，披露了关键业务数据，并将当前的 AI浪潮比作"速度快10倍的工业革命"。 2月18日，在印度举行的AI峰会上，Alphabet(谷歌母公司)CEO桑达尔·皮查伊(Sundar Pichai)、Google DeepMind CEO德米斯·哈萨比斯(Demis Hassabis)以及谷歌高级副总裁詹姆斯·曼尼卡(James Manyika)罕 见同台。 面对市场关于AI投资回报率的质疑以及对"AI泡沫"的担忧，谷歌高管团队从技术演进周期、商业化数据 验证以及未来宏观经济影响三个维度进行了详细阐述。皮查伊在对话中透露，谷歌云业务的积压订单同 比增长了一倍，达到2400亿美元。 回应"房间里的大象"：这不是泡沫，是新基建 随着科技巨头在AI基础设施上的资本开支不断攀升，华尔街对于成本回收周期的焦虑日益增加。面对 主持人关于"CEO们如何向董事会证明成本合理性"的提问，皮查伊直言不讳地将当下的AI时刻比作历史 上的重大基建周期。皮查伊表示： "在某些语境下，有人谈到这是工业 ...

Economic Outlook - The FOMC minutes indicated potential for future rate hikes, reflecting ongoing economic considerations [1] - Concerns about re-inflation have emerged due to delays in the pass-through of tariff-related costs, as highlighted by recent surveys and data [2][5] Tariff Impact - U.S. companies are primarily responsible for paying tariffs, which has led to misunderstandings about their economic impact [3] - The overall cost impact of tariffs is estimated to be only 2-3%, with companies previously absorbing costs but now considering passing them to consumers [4][5] Trade Deficit - The latest trade deficit data shows imports increased by 3.6% while exports decreased by 1.7%, resulting in a widening trade deficit of $7.3 billion [5] Market Sentiment - Stock market volatility is noted, with the VIX hovering around 20, influenced by factors such as U.S.-Iran tensions and seasonal trends affecting tech stocks [6][7] - There is a notable correlation between Bitcoin and the iShares ETF, indicating investor sentiment trends [8] Earnings Reports - Companies like Booking Holdings and EPAM Systems have seen significant stock price declines despite relatively stable quarterly results, reflecting market concerns about AI and tech disruptions [9][10] - Upcoming earnings reports from Nvidia and Salesforce are anticipated to provide clarity on market sentiment regarding AI disruptions [11] Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a churn with significant rotations among individual stocks, despite the S&P 500 being close to its all-time high [12][13] - The average drawdown for S&P members has been 11% year-to-date, with a maximum drawdown of 24% in the NASDAQ, indicating a corrective process through rotation rather than a sharp decline [14][15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, sales increased by 2% to $10.8 billion, despite a 1% decline in global production [8][12] - Adjusted EBIT margin expanded by 100 basis points to 7.5%, with adjusted EBIT increasing by 18% to $814 million [8][14] - Adjusted EPS rose by 29% to $2.18, and free cash flow exceeded $1.3 billion, significantly higher than in 2024 [8][12] - For the full year, sales were $42 billion, down slightly due to softer volumes in North America and Europe, while adjusted EBIT margin rose by 20 basis points to 5.6% [9][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Three of the four segments posted higher sales year-over-year, with seating seeing an 8% increase, while complete vehicles declined by 10% [16] - Body exteriors and structures, as well as seating, showed strong increases in adjusted EBIT margin year-over-year [16][17] - Power and vision margins were negatively impacted by discrete items, but operational improvements are expected to drive margin expansion in 2026 [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global light vehicle production was down 1% overall in Q4, with North America and China declining, while Europe saw an increase [13] - Magna's sales growth is expected to be near flat to up 3.5% in 2026, driven by new program launches and higher production in Europe [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence, which has contributed to margin expansion and is expected to continue delivering benefits in 2026 [10][27] - A disciplined approach to capital spending is emphasized, with plans to repurchase approximately 22 million shares in 2026 while maintaining financial flexibility [7][8] - The company aims to drive EPS growth alongside strong free cash flow, with a target of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion in free cash flow for 2026 [7][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in executing their capital allocation strategy and achieving further EPS growth and strong free cash flow [27] - The outlook for 2026 includes expectations for adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 40-100 basis points and continued improvements in operating performance [7][22] - The company remains focused on shareholder value creation, having increased dividends for the sixteenth consecutive year [27] Other Important Information - The company achieved significant operational milestones in 2025, including securing 90% of its 2028 business and receiving a record 151 customer awards for quality and performance [9][10] - The company has built a unified digital architecture covering about 80% of its divisions, enhancing data visibility and operational efficiency [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for outgrowth excluding complete vehicles - Management highlighted operational excellence activities and new program rollouts as key drivers for the expected outgrowth of 1%-4% [30][31] Question: Operational excellence and commercial recoveries - Management confirmed that operational excellence is a continuing journey with visibility on margin improvements, while commercial recoveries are expected to be neutral year-over-year [35][39] Question: Seating segment outlook and cost actions - Management reassured that no incumbent seating programs have been lost, and the seating segment remains core to the business despite some program roll-offs [43][46] Question: Free cash flow sustainability - Management indicated that the expected free cash flow of $1.6 billion-$1.8 billion is sustainable, supported by disciplined capital expenditures [49] Question: Ford recall and warranty impacts - Management confirmed that one recall matter has been resolved, while another is ongoing, impacting margins in the power and vision segment [51][59] Question: Growth in power and vision segment - Management attributed expected growth to new program launches and operational improvements, despite some margin declines in Q4 [60][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, the company achieved nearly $5,500 improvement in average sales price year-over-year due to the introduction of second-generation R1 quad models and increased base prices for the 2026 model year [10] - The automotive cost of goods sold per unit improved by approximately $9,500 year-over-year due to material cost reductions and operational efficiencies [10] - The company reported over $1.3 billion improvement in full-year gross profit, marking 2025 as the first full year of positive gross profit [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the automotive segment produced 10,974 vehicles and delivered 9,745 vehicles, generating $839 million in automotive revenue [12] - Automotive gross profit for Q4 was -$59 million, a $71 million improvement from Q3 2025, attributed to a higher mix of commercial vans [13] - The software and services segment reported $447 million in revenue and $179 million in gross profit, with 60% of this revenue coming from the joint venture with Volkswagen Group [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The R1S was the best-selling premium electric vehicle priced above $70,000 in several states, including California and New York [4] - The company anticipates delivering between 62,000-67,000 total vehicles across R1, R2, and commercial vans in 2026, with a quarterly delivery expectation of approximately 9,000-11,000 in the first half of the year [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to scale its business with the launch of R2, targeting the mass market and expecting it to drive significant growth and profitability [10][14] - The focus on autonomy and AI is seen as a long-term differentiator, with plans to enhance the software and services segment significantly [15] - The joint venture with Volkswagen Group is expected to expand, with ongoing winter testing and potential for additional product offerings [33][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence that 2026 will be a transformational year, with expectations for improved automotive gross profit and a focus on ramping production and deliveries of R2 [15] - The company is aware of the challenges posed by new vehicle launches but believes that the demand for R2 will be strong despite potential initial complexities [15] - Management highlighted the importance of operational efficiencies and the need to coordinate with the supply chain to meet production goals [41] Other Important Information - The company ended 2025 with approximately $6.1 billion in cash and equivalents, with an additional $2 billion expected from the joint venture with Volkswagen Group in 2026 [13][36] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion, focusing on R2 production and infrastructure development [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on vehicle delivery cadence for 2026 - Management confirmed that the first deliveries of R2 are expected in Q2 2026, with initial numbers being small as production ramps up [18] Question: Expectations for R2 profitability - Management anticipates that both R2 and overall automotive gross profit will be positive as they exit 2026 [20] Question: Demand for R2 and impact of ADAS platform - Management expressed confidence in demand for R2, noting that many customers are eager for a mid-size SUV, and the lack of new hardware will not significantly deter deliveries [25] Question: Progress on the Volkswagen relationship - The Volkswagen relationship is progressing well, with ongoing winter testing and plans for multiple product launches in 2027 [33] Question: Insights on automotive COGS reduction - The reduction in COGS per unit was driven by a higher mix of commercial vans and operational efficiencies, with expectations for further reductions as R2 production ramps up [58] Question: Hiring for production shifts - The hiring process for additional shifts is proceeding as planned, with a strong candidate pool and training programs in place [66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, revenue grew 18% to $751.5 million, with recurring revenue increasing by 20% driven by a 22% year-over-year growth in fulfillment [4][11] - In Q4 2025, revenue was $192.7 million, a 13% increase over Q4 of the previous year, marking the 100th consecutive quarter of revenue growth [11] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year grew 24% to $231.4 million, with Q4 Adjusted EBITDA increasing 22% to $60.5 million [11][12] - The total number of recurring revenue customers was approximately 54,600, with a flat sequential number of 1P customers and a decline of 350 in 3P customers [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fulfillment revenue grew 22% year-over-year, contributing significantly to the overall revenue growth [4] - The company acquired Carbon6 to enhance its revenue recovery solutions, which represents a $750 million addressable market [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company faced challenges in the macroeconomic environment, including tariff-related uncertainties that led to spend scrutiny and delayed purchase decisions [4] - The demand for revenue recovery solutions remained strong, particularly among 1P sellers, despite some headwinds from Amazon policy changes [23][32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its product portfolio and enhancing customer engagement through AI-enabled products and a reimagined retail go-to-market strategy [18] - The strategic focus is shifting towards increasing customer count and ARPU through retail enablement programs and marketing capabilities [30][80] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging macro environment impacting customer spending but expressed confidence in the company's growth trajectory, expecting revenue growth of approximately 7% for 2026 [12][41] - The company anticipates an increase in Adjusted EBITDA margin by 2 percentage points annually, supported by gross margin expansion and effective capital deployment [19][67] Other Important Information - The CFO, Kim Nelson, announced her retirement after nearly 20 years with the company, with Joseph Del Preto set to assume the role [16][17] - The board approved an increase of $200 million in the share repurchase program, totaling up to $300 million [12][48] Q&A Session Summary Question: What were some of the challenges in Q4 that impacted expectations? - Management noted headwinds from existing customers facing invoice scrutiny and uncertainty, which affected revenue [23] Question: How do you view the opportunity with the new Max agentic AI solutions? - The new capabilities are expected to enhance product offerings and provide competitive differentiation, with monetization strategies being developed as customer usage is monitored [25][26] Question: What additional resources or investments are being considered to drive growth? - The company plans to continue investing in retail enablement programs and enhancing marketing capabilities to attract new customers [30] Question: How is the M&A environment currently? - The company remains active in managing an M&A pipeline while balancing share repurchases as an attractive use of capital [48] Question: What is the outlook for 1P customer growth? - The timing of relationship management programs will impact 1P customer additions, with expectations for growth to return in the latter half of 2026 [86]