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Tesla Deliveries Plunged 16% in Q4. What That Means for TSLA Stock in the New Year.
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-02 16:20
Core Viewpoint - Tesla reported Q4 2025 deliveries of 418,227 vehicles, reflecting a 16% year-over-year decline compared to Q4 2024's 495,570 deliveries, raising concerns among investors about the stock's premium valuation [1][4]. Delivery Performance - The electric vehicle segment has experienced a downturn for several quarters, with delivery, growth, and margin figures either stalling or declining over the past year [2]. - Q4 delivery estimates anticipated a 15% decrease, but actual figures were worse, indicating dwindling demand globally, particularly in the U.S. after the elimination of the $7,500 tax credit [4]. Financial Metrics - Tesla's net income halved and revenue remained flat in 2024, with 2025 expected to be a recovery year, but current numbers do not align with these expectations [3]. - The growth phase of Tesla's EV segment appears to be over, with projections of never returning to the previous 30-40% annual growth rates, indicating a shift to a maturing business that may face profitability challenges [6]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors in the EV market are struggling, and the removal of the tax credit did not benefit Tesla as anticipated, as consumers who purchased competitors did so to avoid Tesla or for different product offerings [5]. Market Sentiment - Despite the disappointing delivery figures, Tesla's stock only dropped 1% post-announcement, suggesting that the negative news may have already been factored into the stock price, with investors shifting focus to non-EV ventures like robotaxis and Optimus robots [8][7].