Bitcoin (BTC) has spent virtually all of December locked between $85,000 and $90,000, while U.S. equities rallied and gold hit all-time highs. That's left bitcoin investors frustrated, and the explanation lies in derivatives mechanics. Now, those same mechanics indicate that the largest cryptocurrency could be making a break toward the high end of the range. The more likely outcome after expiry is an upside resolution toward the mid $90,000s rather than a sustained break below $85,000. The key driver ha ...

Bitcoin slips as record $28B Boxing Day options expiry becomes key volatility driver: analysts https://t.co/vOK6bfVhDL ...

RT Ignas | DeFi (@DefiIgnas)Wouldn’t be surprised to see BTC pump to $96k within 5 days.Dec 26 is the largest BTC options expiry: $93.8B on Deribit alone.And most open interest are around ~$96k.At that level, the most options expire worthless.Option sellers, mainly market makers and large desks, benefit there.As expiry approaches, their hedging and positioning can pull price toward that level.Pls do some crime here 🤞 ...

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis focusing on the S&P 500, NVIDIA Corporation, and the Cboe 1-Day Volatility Index [1] - It highlights the performance trends of the S&P 500, indicating fluctuations in market sentiment and investor behavior [1] - NVIDIA Corporation is discussed in terms of its stock performance and market position, reflecting its significance in the tech sector [1] Group 2 - The Cboe 1-Day Volatility Index is analyzed to assess market volatility and investor expectations, providing insights into market stability [1] - The analysis includes numerical data and percentage changes related to the performance of the S&P 500 and NVIDIA, emphasizing their impact on the overall market [1] - The report suggests potential investment opportunities based on the observed trends in these indices and companies [1]

Core Insights - Approximately $6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, testing market resilience as open interest and trader positioning reach new records [1][2] - The options expiry is occurring during a period of subdued volatility, with potential implications for market sentiment towards Bitcoin, Ethereum, and broader digital assets [2][8] Options Expiry Details - On October 24, $5.86 billion in options related to Bitcoin and Ethereum will mature at 8:00 UTC on Deribit, with $5.1 billion in Bitcoin options and $754 million in Ethereum options expiring [2][3] - The 'max pain' points for options expiry are identified at $113,000 for Bitcoin and $3,950 for Ethereum, which may influence trader expectations [4] Market Sentiment and Positioning - Current put-to-call ratios are 0.90 for Bitcoin and 0.77 for Ethereum, indicating cautious optimism towards potential price increases, despite near-term uncertainties [5] - Implied volatility is currently around 40 for Bitcoin and 60 for Ethereum, reflecting a pause in extreme price movements [6][7] - There is strong demand for long-dated Ethereum calls extending into 2026, suggesting optimism about Ethereum's long-term prospects [8] Macroeconomic Context - The options expiry coincides with significant macroeconomic events, including key US inflation data and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which could impact market dynamics [8] - Analysts warn that unexpected news could lead to renewed volatility in the market [9] Historical Context - Historically, options expiry has led to short-term price swings and volatility spikes, but conditions typically stabilize after the expiry time as traders adjust to the new market environment [10]

Options Trading Theory - Max Pain 理论指出，在每个期权到期日，期权交易者获得最小利润的价格即为 Max Pain 价格[1] - 该理论表明，标的资产价格可能在期权到期时向 Max Pain 价格靠拢[1]

Market Trends - Rate cuts and options expiry are putting Bitcoin at a crossroads [1]

Market Volatility - August 加密货币期权到期引发了市场波动 [1] - BTC 和 ETH 总计 150 亿美元的名义价值到期 [1]

Market Trends & Volatility - Bitcoin faces a significant options expiry with $15 billion in contracts expiring Friday [1] - Volatility in the Bitcoin market is hitting multi-year lows [1]

$14.1B options expiry tmrw + exchange supply at historic lows under 2.5M BTCWhat breaks first? ...