In my experience, I've found that it is often more dangerous to sell the top than to sell on the way down. This is because the euphoria associated with selling the top can lead to early rebidding as well as a sense of overconfidence.I suspect Garrett having made 9 figs on 10/10, succumbed to a version of this hubris as well.JackYi (@Jackyi_ld):作为现在全网压力最大的人，首先必须承认：自从顶部清仓后，确实过早看多eth是错误的，因为btc在10万左右，eth一直在3000，我们认为被低估。目前上一轮利润回吐，仓位决定思路，在控制风险的情况下，继续等待行情向上，谢谢大家关心，投资和交易是最难的，身处行业中，总是时刻忍不住看多。 ...

📘 Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, unveils the hidden biases in decision-making, especially in investing.1️⃣ System 1: Fast, intuitive, but error-prone2️⃣ System 2: Slow, deliberate, rational, yet often bypassed3️⃣ Overconfidence: Investors overestimate their skill, underestimate randomness4️⃣ Anchoring Effect: Initial info disproportionately shapes judgments5️⃣ Loss Aversion: Pain from losses outweighs pleasure from gains, causing irrational choices6️⃣ Availability Heuristic: Decisions based on ...

Behavioral Finance & Investment Biases - The speaker argues that people are inherently lazy and greedy, leading to a desire for instant gratification, which negatively impacts investment decisions [1][3] - The financial industry is affected by people's sentiments and behaviors, which are formed by habits [6] - Speculation is increasing among all generations due to impatience and the need for instant gratification, with a large percentage of exchange volumes being futures and options [5] - Good investment habits include regular saving, investing, and sticking to a financial plan with disciplined asset allocation [6][7] - Bad investment habits include buying based on tips, following social media influencers blindly, and deviating from a financial plan due to short-term gains [8] Investment Risks & Cognitive Biases - Greed, exemplified by over-allocation to small-cap stocks, can lead to excessive risk-taking and significant losses [9][10] - Fear of missing out (FOMO) drives people to invest in already high-priced assets, reducing the risk-to-reward ratio [10][12] - Overconfidence, fueled by market rallies, can lead to abandoning studies or jobs for speculative trading, which is a dangerous trend [13][14] - Availability bias can lead to making decisions based on recent, frequent, and extreme information, rather than a comprehensive view [17][18] - Confirmation bias leads investors to seek out opinions and information that confirm their existing beliefs, ignoring contradictory information [19][20][21] - Herd mentality can lead to scams and inflated prices, making it crucial to be a contrarian investor [23][24] - Anchoring bias, where investors fixate on their purchase price, can prevent them from selling losing investments and missing out on better opportunities [26][27] - Endowment bias, where people overvalue what they own, can hinder rational decision-making about assets [28][30] Overcoming Biases & Improving Investment Decisions - Understanding and overcoming biases is crucial for making better decisions and becoming a successful investor [15][16] - The speaker advises to control urges, delay instant gratification, and be aware of personal biases [31]

Market Sentiment - Sellers are becoming scarce in the US stock market, indicating potential overconfidence as equities reach new highs [1] Potential Risk - Scarcity of sellers in the US stock market could be an ominous sign [1]