PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)

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高盛:美国_CPI低于预期;预计 5 月PEC上涨 0.18%
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-12 07:19
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - The May core CPI rose by 0.13% month-over-month, which was below expectations, with the year-over-year rate increasing to 2.79% [2][3] - Declines in airfares (-2.7%) and used car prices (-0.5%) were noted, attributed to softer demand in business and tourism travel [2][3] - The report estimates that tariff increases have raised CPI components exposed to these tariffs by an average of 1.2%, contributing 0.04 percentage points to monthly core CPI inflation over the last three months [2][3][7] - The core PCE price index is estimated to have risen by 0.18% in May, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.62% [8] Summary by Relevant Sections CPI Analysis - The headline CPI rose by 0.08%, influenced by a 1.0% decline in energy prices and a 0.3% increase in food prices [7] - The core CPI components that negatively impacted the overall index included public transportation (-2.5%), apparel (-0.4%), and used cars (-0.5%), which collectively weighed down the core by 7 basis points [3] Price Index Estimates - The report anticipates that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.14% in May, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.29% [8] - Market-based core PCE is estimated to have risen by 0.22% in May [8]