Economic Growth Expectations - The consensus view anticipates GDP growth, but a lower expectation of 2.6% growth for Q4 is noted, influenced by a long government shutdown expected to reduce topline growth by 1.5% [2][3] - There is a risk of GDP growth falling below the long-term trend of 1.8%, necessitating close monitoring of the composition of GDP growth [3] Inflation Insights - The PCE price index is projected to show core inflation around 2.9%, with a risk of exceeding 3%, indicating a shift in economic conditions if 3% becomes the effective inflation target [4][6] - Higher interest rates are anticipated as fixed income investors prioritize capital preservation, influenced by expectations of economic acceleration [6] Market Sentiment and Risks - The bond market reflects risk aversion, with concerns about the structural transformation of the economy due to artificial intelligence, which may disrupt various sectors [9][10] - Current market conditions emphasize risk mitigation and a more introspective approach to capital management, influenced by geopolitical issues and economic data releases [11] Consumer Behavior and Investment - Strong consumer spending is expected during the holiday season, but a detailed breakdown is necessary to identify the driving factors [12][13] - AI-driven capital expenditures in software and equipment are anticipated to contribute positively to economic performance, despite potential government sector drag [13][14]

U.S. Stock Market Performance - U.S. stocks traded higher, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining around 0.2% on Friday [1] - The Dow increased by 0.17% to 47,933.71, while the NASDAQ rose 0.16% to 23,543.03, and the S&P 500 gained 0.15% to 6,867.40 [1] - Communication services shares jumped by 0.9%, while utilities stocks fell by 0.6% [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE price index increased by 0.3% month-over-month in September, consistent with the previous month and market estimates [2][11] - U.S. personal income rose by 0.4% month-over-month to $26.397 trillion in September [8] Commodity Market - Oil traded up 0.7% to $60.08, gold increased by 0.1% to $4,245.70, silver rose by 2.7% to $59.035, and copper gained 1.2% to $5.4385 [5] Company-Specific Movements - Praxis Precision Medicines Inc shares surged 31% to $248.00 after announcing completion of its pre-NDA meeting with the FDA [9] - DigitalBridge Group Inc shares increased by 32% to $12.86 following reports of SoftBank's interest in acquiring the company [9] - Rubrik Inc shares rose 23% to $86.80 after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter results and raising FY26 guidance [9] - Parsons Corp shares dropped 25% to $62.97 after losing a joint bid with IBM for a new air traffic control system [9] - Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc shares fell 30% to $1.70 after reporting third-quarter results [9] - Domo Inc shares decreased by 23% to $8.87 after reporting third-quarter results and issuing lower-than-expected fourth-quarter sales guidance [9]

Core Insights - Gold prices increased by 0.3% to $4,231.80 per troy ounce as investors anticipate key U.S. economic data that may influence the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decisions [1] Economic Indicators - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including ADP employment figures, ISM services index, and PCE price index, which are expected to provide insights into the economic landscape and potential interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve [1]

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 were 218,000, below the expected 235,000, with the prior week's figure revised from 231,000 to 232,000. U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized growth rate (final) was 3.8%, above the expected and previous 3.3%. U.S. Q2 core PCE price index annualized rate (final) was 2.6%, slightly above the expected and previous 2.5%. ...

Inflation Trends - US core PCE price index annual rate increased to 2.9%, the highest since December 2024 [1] - Core PCE monthly rate was 0.3%, compared to the previous 0.1% [1] - Overall PCE annual rate was 2.6%, with a monthly rate of 0.2% [1]

🇺🇸 JUST IN: US core PCE price index rose 2.9% YoY in July, matching expectations, up from 2.8% previously.MoM at 0.3%, in line with forecasts and unchanged from June. https://t.co/66MiewixIG ...

Economic Indicators - US Q2 Core PCE price index (年化季度环比初值) 为 2.5%，低于预期的 2.3%，前值为 3.5% [1] - US Q2 实际 GDP (年化季度环比初值) 为 3%，高于预期的 2.4%，前值为 -0.5% [1]