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Will Keytruda Continue to Aid Merck's Top Line in Q3 Earnings?
ZACKSยท 2025-10-10 17:01
Core Insights - Merck holds a strong position in the oncology market, primarily driven by its PD-L1 inhibitor, Keytruda, which accounted for over 50% of the company's pharmaceutical sales in the first half of 2025 [1][9] - Keytruda's sales increased approximately 7% in the first half of 2025, and the company anticipates continued growth, particularly in early lung cancer indications [2][3] Sales Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Keytruda's sales in Q3 2025 is $8.50 billion, with an internal estimate of $8.51 billion [3] - Keytruda is expected to continue being the primary revenue driver in the second half of 2025, supported by the Animal Health segment and new product launches [3] Regulatory Developments - The FDA approved a subcutaneous formulation of Keytruda, known as Keytruda Qlex, which enhances patient convenience and extends patent protection beyond 2028 [4][9] Competitive Landscape - Keytruda faces competition from other PD-L1 inhibitors such as Bristol-Myers' Opdivo, Roche's Tecentriq, and AstraZeneca's Imfinzi, which have also shown strong sales growth [6][7] - Opdivo generated $4.82 billion in sales in the first half of 2025, up 9% year-over-year, while Tecentriq and Imfinzi reported CHF 1.7 billion and $2.72 billion in sales, respectively [6][7] Financial Performance - Year-to-date, Merck's shares have declined by 12.1%, underperforming the industry, sector, and S&P 500 [8] - Merck's shares trade at a price/earnings ratio of 9.15, which is lower than the industry average of 15.88 and its 5-year mean of 12.66, indicating attractive valuation [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share has slightly increased from $8.92 to $8.93, while the estimate for 2026 has decreased from $9.61 to $9.58 over the past 60 days [11]