Core Viewpoint - The tightening of national subsidy policies in June has negatively impacted domestic market demand expectations, leading to a general decline in panel prices. However, the reintroduction of subsidies in July may support market confidence, although weakened policy benefits and exhausted consumer potential could limit demand recovery in the second half of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - In June, the reduction or suspension of national subsidy policies in several provinces affected sales expectations for the 618 shopping festival, resulting in a general decline in panel prices [3][4]. - The domestic market demand is closely linked to the "old-for-new" subsidy policy, which has shown positive year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances since its implementation [3]. - The third batch of 138 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" policy is expected to be released in mid-July, potentially boosting demand in the second half of the year [3][4]. Group 2: Price Trends - Overall panel prices are expected to continue declining in July, with significant price drops for large-sized panels. The anticipated price ranges for mainstream panels from 32" to 85" are $32, $65, $92, $118, $169, $227, and $307, respectively, indicating a decrease of $1 to $3 from June prices [2][5]. - The supply side is adjusting production rates to stabilize panel prices, with the average utilization rate for G8.5 production lines around 73% in Q2, down approximately 4 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. Group 3: External Market Influences - The expiration of the tariff buffer period for imports from China and Southeast Asia may lead to a preemptive increase in procurement demand, which could provide short-term support for panel prices [4]. - However, the ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty regarding tariffs are expected to negatively impact long-term panel demand and pricing [4].