Core Viewpoint - The demand for LCD TV panels is expected to weaken in November due to limited impact from domestic subsidy policies and a calming of the US-China tariff situation, leading to a downward trend in panel prices [1][2][3]. Demand Analysis - Overall demand for panels is declining in Q4, with manufacturers stabilizing mainstream size prices through coordinated production control. As of November, brand stocking has nearly concluded, shifting procurement from urgent to cautious [2][3]. - The domestic "trade-in" policy is also nearing its end, and while there may be some pre-stocking for the 2026 World Cup, the easing of US-China trade tensions has reduced the urgency for stocking [3]. - The comprehensive tariff on Chinese TV exports to the US has decreased to approximately 31.4%, further diminishing the need for urgent stocking [3]. Supply Analysis - As stocking winds down, order volumes are decreasing, prompting leading panel manufacturers to adjust production capacity, maintaining an average utilization rate of around 75% [4]. - The G8.5 and G10.5 production lines are primarily responsible for production control, with significant reductions in utilization rates, which has helped stabilize prices for sizes ranging from 32" to 75" [4]. - However, the G8.6 production line has seen weaker production control, leading to continued price declines for larger panels (85" and above) [4]. Price Forecast - In November, the overall demand for LCD TV panels is expected to weaken, with most panel sizes entering a general price decline. Specifically, prices for 32" and 43" panels are projected to remain stable at $32 and $64, respectively, while prices for sizes from 50" to 85" are expected to drop by $2 each [5]. - The largest panels (98"/100") are anticipated to see a more significant price drop of $10, bringing their price down to $440 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of domestic subsidy policies and international tariff changes on the panel market, indicating a downward trend in panel prices due to weakened demand and supply conditions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Demand - In June, tightening of national subsidy policies in various regions affected domestic market demand expectations, leading to a general decline in panel prices [2][3]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy is closely linked to domestic market demand, with retail sales of home appliances showing continuous positive growth until June [4]. - The expected recovery of national subsidies in July may boost market confidence, but the overall demand in the second half of the year may still face pressure due to reduced subsidy amounts and heightened eligibility criteria [3][4]. Group 2: Market Supply - Panel suppliers have adjusted production rates in response to weakened demand, with the average utilization rate of G8.5 production lines around 73% in Q2, down approximately 4 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - The overall utilization rate for high-generation lines is expected to remain around 80% in July, with potential adjustments to production to stabilize panel prices [5][6]. - The article anticipates that panel prices will continue to decline in July, with price reductions of $1 to $3 expected across various panel sizes compared to June [6]. Group 3: Price Trends - The article provides a detailed price forecast for various panel sizes, indicating a continued downward trend in prices for July, with specific price points for sizes ranging from 32" to 85" [6]. - The expected prices for July are $32 for 32", $65 for 43", $92 for 50", $118 for 55", $169 for 65", $227 for 75", and $307 for 85" [6].