July 28, 2025 06:47 PM GMT US Economics | North America Employment Report Preview: Slower hiring still coincides with low unemployment The underlying pace of payrolls is slowing. For July, we expect payrolls and private payrolls rise 100k. AHE 0.3%. We forecast the U3 rate inches up to 4.2%, but is even with a year earlier. Two questions: will LFPR put more downward pressure on the U3 rate and will state education payrolls reverse? Exhibit 1: Employment forecast details | Employment Report: Forecasts & Rece ...