Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050, moving away from previous expectations of peak oil demand due to slower adoption of green technologies [1][2][9] - The IEA's "Current Policies Scenario" anticipates global oil demand rising to 105 million barrels per day by 2035 and 113 million barrels per day by 2050, driven mainly by petrochemical feedstocks and aviation [6][10] - The share of electric vehicles (EVs) in total car sales is expected to plateau after 2035, contributing to sustained oil demand growth into the 2030s and beyond [7][11] Demand Projections - Under the "Current Policies Scenario," global oil demand is projected to increase from 100 million barrels per day last year to 105 million barrels per day in 2035 and 113 million barrels per day in 2050 [6] - The "Stated Policies Scenario" suggests oil demand will peak at 102 million barrels per day around 2030 before gradually declining, while gas demand continues to grow into the 2030s [11] Renewable Energy Outlook - Renewables are expected to grow faster than any other major energy source, with solar photovoltaics leading the charge, particularly in China, which is projected to account for 45% to 60% of global deployment over the next decade [16] - The share of renewables in electricity generation is projected to reach nearly 55% by 2035 in the "Stated Policies Scenario," while the "Current Policies Scenario" sees slower growth due to challenges in grid integration [18] Climate Impact - The IEA warns that even with increased renewable energy adoption, energy-related emissions will not sufficiently mitigate climate risks, with global temperatures projected to rise by nearly 3°C by 2100 under the "Current Policies Scenario" [19][20] - The "Stated Policies Scenario" predicts a slightly lower temperature increase of 2.5°C, while the Net Zero Emissions scenario indicates temperatures exceeding 1.5°C for several decades before returning below that threshold by 2100 [20] Energy Security Concerns - The IEA emphasizes the importance of energy security, highlighting the need for reliable electricity grids, energy storage, and demand-side flexibility [22] - The concentration of supply in critical minerals, particularly in refining where China controls around 70% of the market for most energy-related minerals, poses significant challenges [22]

The world’s largest international oil firms are ramping up production even as crude prices have weakened this year and global supply growth continues to outpace the demand increase, setting the stage for a glut in the coming months. The European majors are back to investing in exploration and new oil and gas field developments after years of trying – and mostly failing – to generate profits and good returns from low-carbon energy projects, including renewable electricity, green hydrogen, and biofuels. Big ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC asserts that there is no imminent peak oil demand, emphasizing the long-term necessity of oil for the global economy and daily life [3][4] Demand Forecasts - OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecasts downward for the next four years due to lower growth in China, the rise of electric vehicles, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment in OECD countries [3] - The report projects oil demand to average 105 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, increasing to 106.3 million bpd in 2026, 111.6 million bpd in 2029, and reaching 123 million bpd by 2050 [5] Energy Mix - Oil is expected to maintain the largest share in the energy mix at just below 30% by 2050, with the combined share of oil and gas remaining above 50% from 2024 to 2050 [5] - The share of other renewables in the energy mix is projected to rise to 13.5% by 2050, an increase of 10 percentage points from 2024 [5] Regional Demand Growth - India, along with other Asian nations, the Middle East, and Africa, is anticipated to be the primary source of long-term oil demand growth, with a combined increase of 22.4 million bpd from 2024 to 2050, and India alone contributing 8.2 million bpd [6] Contrasting Views - Other organizations, such as the International Energy Agency, predict that global oil demand may peak at 105.6 million bpd in 2029 before experiencing a decline [7] - Some industry experts believe that peak oil demand could occur sooner than expected, potentially within this decade, due to the rapid growth of renewable energy [8] Economic Influences - The future trajectory of oil demand may be influenced by global economic conditions, including the impact of digital technologies and geopolitical factors [11][12] - The ongoing global economic turmoil, such as U.S. tariffs, could alter the demand and supply dynamics for oil and other commodities [12] Long-term Outlook - Despite differing opinions on peak oil demand, hydrocarbons are expected to remain a significant part of the global energy mix for the foreseeable future, although oil may not be as dominant as OPEC anticipates [13]