Core Insights - Amazon Shipping will implement peak season surcharges from October 26, 2025, to January 17, 2026, with the highest fees occurring from November 23 to December 27, 2025 [4][8] - The surcharges include a per-package demand surcharge and additional fees for large, heavy, or special handling parcels, with increases compared to 2024 fees [8] - Amazon's logistics arm experienced a 7.3% year-over-year volume increase in 2024, surpassing competitors like the U.S. Postal Service, UPS, and FedEx [6] Fee Structure - The fee structure for the 2025 holiday season includes: - $0.40 per package surcharge from October 26 to November 22 - $0.60 per package surcharge from November 23 to December 27 - $0.40 per package surcharge from December 28 to January 17, 2026 - Additional handling fees ranging from $8.25 to $10.80 depending on the period - Large package fees ranging from $90 to $107 depending on the period - Extra heavy package fees ranging from $485 to $540 depending on the period [3][4][8] Market Dynamics - Amazon Shipping is attracting more shippers, including companies like BarkBox and KiwiCo, who report faster delivery times and more economical rates after switching from other carriers [5] - There is a growing trend among shippers to seek alternative carriers due to rising parcel shipping rates, with other carriers collectively increasing their volumes by 22.6% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of demand surcharges by major parcel carriers like UPS and FedEx is being questioned as the market faces reduced retail sales and capacity cuts, potentially driving shippers to alternative delivery options [2][5][8]. Demand and Capacity - During the peak season, an estimated 2.3 billion packages are expected to be delivered in the U.S., which is a 5% increase from the previous year, primarily due to an extra shopping day [3]. - Average daily volume for the holiday shopping season is projected to increase by low double-digits compared to earlier this year, contrasting sharply with nearly 100% growth in 2013 and 50% during the 2020 pandemic [4]. Surcharges and Market Reactions - UPS has introduced an $8.25 surcharge for packages requiring additional handling, set to rise to $10.80 on November 23, with additional surcharges for ground and overnight air shipments starting October 26 [2]. - Critics argue that surcharges in a softer market are short-sighted and may lead to a loss of market share as shippers seek alternatives [5][6][7]. Competitive Landscape - FedEx and UPS are losing market share to competitors like Amazon, Walmart, and independent carriers, with Amazon's domestic parcel volumes increasing by 6.1% in the first half of the year, while UPS and USPS saw declines of 5.4% and 6.7%, respectively [9][10]. - The trend of retailers like Walmart and Target expanding their delivery capabilities is further shrinking the market for traditional carriers [11]. Future Outlook - ShipMatrix predicts that without changes, Amazon, Walmart, and independent carriers will deliver more parcels than the major carriers combined by 2027 [13]. - The diversification of carriers is expected to continue, driven by the adoption of multi-carrier shipping software and the use of gig workers for deliveries [15].