Economic Outlook & Investment Strategy - KKR认为美国正在经历类似于1990年代的生产力繁荣，这能够支持更高的工资、承受关税对利润率的影响，并最终推动收入增长 [8][9] - KKR的基本观点是，美国经济将继续以1.5%到2%的速度增长，并且可能略有上升 [14] - KKR预计美联储今年将降息两次，明年将降息三次，以支持市场 [15][28] - KKR认为企业正在继续增加资本支出，消费者状况良好，因此当前市场水平相对安全 [16] Sector & Regional Analysis - AI资本支出增长超过了个人消费的所有增长，这是一个巨大的变化 [3] - 亚洲市场（尤其是韩国和日本）存在投资机会，这些市场的估值较低，且企业正在进行改革 [17][18][19] - 亚洲内部贸易正在增长，预计将从目前的48%-50%增长到70%，类似于欧洲和美洲的水平，这将推动物流基础设施的发展 [22][23] Risks & Concerns - 如果AI领域的回报率下降过快，可能会对GDP产生影响 [26] - 如果失业率大幅上升至5.5%，将对经济体系造成冲击 [26] - 低收入消费者正在感受到更高通胀的影响，一些杠杆实体因利率上升而面临压力 [15] Labor Market Dynamics - 政府部门就业岗位的减少和医疗保健及教育行业的窄幅关注可能会导致政府数据表现不佳 [10] - KKR观察到企业招聘速度放缓，但没有出现大规模裁员 [11] - 如果不是因为特朗普政府限制了劳动力供应，失业率可能会接近5% [12]

GDP Overview - Second quarter GDP grew 3%, exceeding the forecast of 2.6% and up from 0.5% in the first quarter [1] - Personal consumption increased by 1.4%, slightly below the anticipated 1.5% [2] Investment Trends - Gross domestic private investment, nonresidential fixed, decreased to 1.9% from 10.3%, indicating businesses were holding off on spending [2][3] - Equipment spending slowed to a 4.8% gain from a 23.7% gain [3] - Intellectual property, software, etc, rose slightly to 6.4% from 6% [3] Trade and Inventory - Exports were down 1.8%, while imports were down 30.3% after rising 37.9% in the first quarter, indicating an import-driven story [3][4] - Inventories decreased by $585.5 billion, contrasting with a $151.6 billion increase in the first quarter [4] Sales Analysis - Real final sales to domestic purchasers were at an annualized rate of 1.1%, down from 1.9% in the first quarter [5]