Pig Price Pressure

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国联民生证券:2025年猪价整体承压 未来生猪产能去化趋势或有所加强
智通财经网· 2025-05-08 08:35
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the breeding sow inventory is expected to continue increasing until at least September 2025, despite a projected decline in overall pig prices and industry profitability in 2025 [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a decrease in the breeding sow inventory in March, while the total pig output turned positive with a slight increase in production [1] - The first quarter saw a total pig output of 19.476 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 200,000 heads, while pork production reached 16.02 million tons, up 190,000 tons year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Data from Yongyi Consulting shows a mixed trend in breeding sow inventory for March, with one sample point decreasing by 0.25% and another increasing by 0.1% [2] - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.43% in March, while the number of farrowing sows slightly increased by 0.31% due to last year's higher breeding sow numbers [2] - The piglet mortality rate decreased in March compared to February, indicating improved survival rates for piglets [2] Group 3 - According to Mysteel data, the breeding sow inventory saw a slight increase of 0.09% in March, with larger farms showing a smaller increase compared to smaller farms [3] - The industry is currently stable in terms of disease, and profitability in the breeding sector remains, leading to a weaker inclination for large farms to reduce production capacity [3] - There is a growing optimism in the market regarding piglets post-holiday, which has led to increased replenishment intentions among smaller farms [3]