南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 胡剑铭 周内（1月26日至1月30日），大宗商品市场分化加剧。基本金属板块涨跌不一，贵金属板块冲高回 落。 具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨6.70%、原油上涨6.54%；黑色系板块，焦煤周下跌0.13%、 焦炭下跌0.03%、铁矿石下跌0.44%；基本金属板块，碳酸锂周下跌18.36%、沪锌上涨5.08%、沪镍下跌 5.63%；贵金属板块，沪金周上涨4.10%、沪银上涨11.92%；农产品板块，鸡蛋周下跌1.44%、生猪下跌 2.98%。 交易行情热点 热点一：投机情绪降温，黄金冲高后大幅回落 本周黄金期货市场经历剧烈波动，前期受地缘避险情绪推动创下历史新高后，因美联储政策预期生 变大幅回调。截至1月30日，沪金主力2604合约报1161.42元/克，周涨4.10%；伦敦金收于4880美元/盎 司，周跌2.07%，日内最大跌幅达9.29%，创40年来最大单日跌幅。 供给上，全球黄金供应保持稳定，矿山产量与回收量稳步释放，未出现明显缺口。2025年全球黄金 总需求达5002吨创历史新高，但供应端未出现大幅波动，供需格局相对均衡。央行售金规模有限，新兴 国家央行延续购金态势，进一 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, Sichuan's GDP is projected to be 67,665.34 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.5% increase from the previous year at constant prices [1] - The economic performance is stable with steady growth in production supply and continuous optimization of economic structure [1] Industry Performance - The primary industry added value is 5,751.35 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year [1] - The secondary industry added value is 23,260.22 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.9% [1] - The tertiary industry added value is 38,653.77 billion yuan, increasing by 6.1% [1] Agricultural Sector - The total grain output for the year is 36.625 million tons, marking a 0.8% increase from the previous year [3] - The number of pigs slaughtered reached 62.48 million, up by 1.6% year-on-year [1] Industrial Sector - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 6.5% year-on-year [3] - 33 out of 41 major industrial sectors reported an increase in added value [3] - Key industrial products showed significant growth: natural gas production increased by 10.9%, industrial robots by 45.9%, lithium-ion batteries by 45.1%, automobiles by 29.6%, LCD screens by 21.6%, integrated circuits by 15.4%, and smartwatches by 9.2% [1] High-Tech Industry - The added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 12.3% [2] - The electronic and communication equipment manufacturing sector saw a growth of 20.2%, while the aerospace and aircraft manufacturing sector grew by 19.0% [2] Service Sector - The added value of the service industry grew by 6.1% year-on-year [4] - Notable growth in specific service sectors includes: leasing and business services at 14.4%, information transmission, software, and IT services at 9.8%, wholesale and retail at 7.0%, financial services at 6.2%, and accommodation and catering at 5.3% [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 29,135.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.1% increase from the previous year [4] - Significant growth in retail categories includes: communication equipment at 50.8%, gold and jewelry at 32.6%, grain and food at 12.4%, automobiles at 8.9%, cosmetics at 8.3%, and traditional Chinese and Western medicines at 5.8% [4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, while industrial investment increased by 7.3% [4] Economic Indicators - The economic prosperity index for the year is 103.5, with production and sales indices at 103.5 and 103.6, respectively [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For corn, in the short - term, with new - season corn approaching and terminal demand weakening, the price is running weakly but the decline is limited due to low inventory levels. In the long - term, the price is expected to decline under the background of increased production and lower costs until consumption improves or there is惜售 sentiment. For starch, in the short - term, as the cost of raw materials decreases, the price of starch is likely to be lowered to reduce inventory. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook bearish [3] - For sugar, the international sugar price is under pressure due to the peak - season supply in Brazil. The domestic sugar price is also facing pressure as imported sugar arrives and processing sugar prices are lowered [4] - For cotton, the price has entered a shock phase. If there are no major macro - risk events, the April low can be regarded as the long - term bottom, and the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [6] - For eggs, the spot price has rebounded due to increased demand and the "buy - on - rising" mentality. High inventory and cold - storage eggs limit the price increase, but the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost. Post - holiday chicken culling should be monitored [9] - For apples, the new - season output is expected to be similar to last year, with some regional variations. Consumption is in the off - season, and the price is currently stable. Attention should be paid to the final output determination [11] - For pigs, there are policy - related expectations of a production - capacity inflection point next year. However, insufficient capacity reduction still suppresses the medium - term supply. The near - term supply pressure is being released, and the spot price is hitting new lows. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Group 3: Summary of Each Product Corn/Starch - Price and data: From 2025/09/24 - 2025/09/30, the price in some regions changed, e.g., the price in Jinzhou decreased by 40, the base difference decreased by 24, and the processing profit of starch increased by 40 [2] - Market analysis: Short - term, the price of corn is weakly oscillating due to reduced demand. Starch prices are likely to be lowered to reduce inventory. Long - term, both corn and starch prices are under pressure [3] Sugar - Price and data: From 2025/09/24 - 2025/09/30, the spot price remained unchanged in some regions, the base difference decreased by 14, and the import profit decreased [4] - Market analysis: International supply pressure affects prices, and domestic prices are also under pressure with the arrival of imported sugar [4] Cotton - Price and data: From 2025/09/24 - 2025/09/30, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 85, the import profit increased by 57, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 92 [6] - Market analysis: The price is in a shock phase, and the downside space is limited if there are no major macro - events [6] Eggs - Price and data: From 2025/09/24 - 2025/09/30, the prices in some regions decreased, the base difference decreased by 101, and the prices of substitutes such as chickens and pigs changed slightly [9] - Market analysis: The spot price has rebounded, but high inventory limits the increase, and the price is unlikely to fall below the feed cost [9] Apples - Price and data: From 2025/09/24 - 2025/09/30, the spot price remained stable, and the inventory decreased in some regions [10][11] - Market analysis: The new - season output is expected to be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season [11] Pigs - Price and data: From 2025/09/24 - 2025/09/30, the prices in some regions changed slightly, and the base difference decreased by 10 [15] - Market analysis: There are expectations of a production - capacity inflection point next year, but medium - term supply pressure remains, and the spot price is hitting new lows [15]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities indicates that the pig farming industry is expected to enter a downward price cycle in 2025, but due to limited production capacity growth, normal profitability is anticipated. With the implementation of policies by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), pig prices in 2026 may exceed expectations, benefiting companies with excellent cost control [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Outlook - The production capacity recovery is notably slow, with pig prices currently in a downward cycle. By the 23rd week of 2025, the national average pig price was 14.78 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7% and a decline of 10.8% from the beginning of the year [1]. - The average weight of pigs in 2025 is significantly high, with the national average at 128.28 kg, which is the highest level since 2022, showing an increase compared to the same period in previous years [2]. - The NDRC's policies are expected to have a lasting impact, with a projected decline in the number of breeding sows and a decrease in pig weights, leading to a stabilization and potential increase in pig prices in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - The fundamentals of listed pig companies are continuously improving, with a total output of 86.99 million pigs from 20 listed companies in the first five months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31% [4]. - The breeding costs for listed pig companies are on a downward trend, with major players like Muyuan, Wens, and Shennong leading the industry in cost efficiency. For instance, Muyuan's cost per kilogram for fattening pigs decreased from 13.1 yuan in January to 12.2 yuan in May 2025 [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the breeding sow inventory is expected to continue increasing until at least September 2025, despite a projected decline in overall pig prices and industry profitability in 2025 [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a decrease in the breeding sow inventory in March, while the total pig output turned positive with a slight increase in production [1] - The first quarter saw a total pig output of 19.476 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 200,000 heads, while pork production reached 16.02 million tons, up 190,000 tons year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Data from Yongyi Consulting shows a mixed trend in breeding sow inventory for March, with one sample point decreasing by 0.25% and another increasing by 0.1% [2] - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.43% in March, while the number of farrowing sows slightly increased by 0.31% due to last year's higher breeding sow numbers [2] - The piglet mortality rate decreased in March compared to February, indicating improved survival rates for piglets [2] Group 3 - According to Mysteel data, the breeding sow inventory saw a slight increase of 0.09% in March, with larger farms showing a smaller increase compared to smaller farms [3] - The industry is currently stable in terms of disease, and profitability in the breeding sector remains, leading to a weaker inclination for large farms to reduce production capacity [3] - There is a growing optimism in the market regarding piglets post-holiday, which has led to increased replenishment intentions among smaller farms [3]