Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities indicates that the pig farming industry is expected to enter a downward price cycle in 2025, but due to limited production capacity growth, normal profitability is anticipated. With the implementation of policies by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), pig prices in 2026 may exceed expectations, benefiting companies with excellent cost control [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Outlook - The production capacity recovery is notably slow, with pig prices currently in a downward cycle. By the 23rd week of 2025, the national average pig price was 14.78 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7% and a decline of 10.8% from the beginning of the year [1]. - The average weight of pigs in 2025 is significantly high, with the national average at 128.28 kg, which is the highest level since 2022, showing an increase compared to the same period in previous years [2]. - The NDRC's policies are expected to have a lasting impact, with a projected decline in the number of breeding sows and a decrease in pig weights, leading to a stabilization and potential increase in pig prices in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - The fundamentals of listed pig companies are continuously improving, with a total output of 86.99 million pigs from 20 listed companies in the first five months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31% [4]. - The breeding costs for listed pig companies are on a downward trend, with major players like Muyuan, Wens, and Shennong leading the industry in cost efficiency. For instance, Muyuan's cost per kilogram for fattening pigs decreased from 13.1 yuan in January to 12.2 yuan in May 2025 [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the breeding sow inventory is expected to continue increasing until at least September 2025, despite a projected decline in overall pig prices and industry profitability in 2025 [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a decrease in the breeding sow inventory in March, while the total pig output turned positive with a slight increase in production [1] - The first quarter saw a total pig output of 19.476 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 200,000 heads, while pork production reached 16.02 million tons, up 190,000 tons year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Data from Yongyi Consulting shows a mixed trend in breeding sow inventory for March, with one sample point decreasing by 0.25% and another increasing by 0.1% [2] - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.43% in March, while the number of farrowing sows slightly increased by 0.31% due to last year's higher breeding sow numbers [2] - The piglet mortality rate decreased in March compared to February, indicating improved survival rates for piglets [2] Group 3 - According to Mysteel data, the breeding sow inventory saw a slight increase of 0.09% in March, with larger farms showing a smaller increase compared to smaller farms [3] - The industry is currently stable in terms of disease, and profitability in the breeding sector remains, leading to a weaker inclination for large farms to reduce production capacity [3] - There is a growing optimism in the market regarding piglets post-holiday, which has led to increased replenishment intentions among smaller farms [3]