Summary of Key Points from the UBS Evidence Lab China Consumer Survey Industry Overview - The report focuses on the consumer sentiment and economic outlook in China, based on a survey conducted with 3,000 consumers in July 2025, highlighting trends in income growth, savings, and consumption patterns [2][7][62]. Core Insights 1. **Slower Income Growth**: - A net 41% of respondents reported salary increases over the past year, with average salary growth at 3.3%, down from 4.6% in 2024 [2][8]. - Income growth from investments and property letting also softened, reflecting a prolonged property downturn [9][21]. 2. **Consumer Sentiment**: - Respondents expressed weaker expectations for income growth over the next 12 months, with only 46% expecting salary increases, down from 50% in 2024 [19][22]. - The share of respondents reporting a better financial situation decreased to 39% from 43% in 2024 [9]. 3. **Savings and Consumption Trends**: - Household saving intention increased, with 54% planning to increase cash and deposits holdings, while only 6% expect to increase consumption [12][22]. - The overall consumption willingness remained subdued, with only 29% expecting to increase consumption in the next year, down from 36% in 2024 [44]. 4. **Impact of Policy Support**: - Nearly 75% of respondents received some form of policy support, with over 80% planning to use trade-in subsidies [4][38]. - Retail sales in sectors with trade-in subsidies increased by 25% YoY, significantly outperforming those without subsidies [4]. 5. **Sector-Specific Spending Intentions**: - Increased willingness to spend was noted in sectors like sports, education, healthcare, and travel, while spending on offline entertainment and dining out weakened [44][39]. 6. **Property Market Sentiment**: - Only 4% of respondents reported property value appreciation over the past year, the lowest since the survey began in 2018 [27]. - Future expectations for property value appreciation also declined, with only 23% expecting increases in the next year [28]. 7. **Consumer Price Expectations**: - Consumer price expectations were less positive than in 2024, with 48% expecting prices to rise, down from 54% [29]. 8. **Outlook for 2026**: - Consumption growth is expected to remain modest in 2026, with anticipated mid-single-digit growth due to stagnant income growth and ongoing property market challenges [49]. Additional Important Insights - The survey indicates a sustained negative wealth effect from the property downturn, which is crucial as property constitutes over 50% of household wealth [27]. - The government is expected to extend trade-in subsidies modestly in 2026, but the potential for new consumption categories remains uncertain [49]. - The report emphasizes the need for measures to support the labor market and stabilize housing prices to aid consumption recovery in the medium to long term [49].

and their markets have seen a big rebound in stock markets in the past three months. The Shanghai Composite up nearly 9%, the FXI ETF up more than 15%, the KWEB Internet ETF up about that amount as well. Joining us now is Brendan Ahern.He's the chief investment officer at Crane Shares. Brendan, bring us up to speed. I mean you might have heard a little bit of that discussion about um sort of the future of some companies like Apple in China but more specifically amid rumors swirling about the health of Xiinp ...

Economic Outlook - Despite the trade truce, economic numbers appear soft, necessitating a broader perspective [1] - Macro policy improvements in September of last year, along with front-loaded activity in Q1, led to solid data in Q4 of last year and Q1 of this year [2] - The underlying economic momentum is moderating due to trade tariff issues with the US and increasing external uncertainty [2][3] - The baseline expectation is for sequential growth of the Chinese economy to slow from approximately 66% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 to around 35% in Q2, and further to 3% in Q3 [3] - PMI numbers align with expectations of moderating economic momentum [4] Sector Performance - Diverging trends exist across different sectors, with China's exports to the US down 40% in April and May [5] - Sectors receiving policy support, such as training subsidies and equipment upgrades, are performing well [6] - The housing sector continues to be a drag on the economy and has not yet bottomed out [6] - Consumer sentiment outside of policy support areas remains at a historical low [7] Policy Implications - Domestic and consumption support are crucial for policy focus this year [7] - Subsidies for consumer durables and autos have shown some impact, but their effect will fade by year-end [7] - Further policy support, particularly for services consumption, is needed [8]