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Grupo Supervielle(SUPV) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-26 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net loss of ARS 50.3 billion in Q3 2025, significantly impacted by high real interest rates and tight monetary policy [3][4] - Net financial income declined by 43% sequentially, with the NIM for pesos falling to 11.7% and total NIM to 10.8%, down 1,100 and 1,000 basis points respectively [6][7] - The CET1 ratio reached 13.2% at the end of the quarter and improved to 14.5% in October [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth was solid, up 8% in real terms, primarily driven by corporate lending, while retail lending slightly declined due to tightened origination standards [4] - The NPL ratio rose to 3.9%, mainly due to retail loans, but the NPL share of individuals remains below the retail loan share [4][5] - Deposit growth was strong, increasing by 15% quarter-on-quarter and over 40% year-on-year, with dollar deposits reaching a record high, up 31% sequentially [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates real loan growth of 35%-40% for the full year 2025, led by corporate lending, with retail gradually resuming growth as disposable income improves [7][8] - The forecast for deposits is a growth of 30%-35%, with further gains in U.S. dollar-denominated deposits [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing customer engagement and expanding cross-sell opportunities, particularly through its super app and InvertirOnline [5] - Strategic initiatives are aimed at unlocking the full value of the franchise, with a commitment to return to profitability and sustained long-term value [2][5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about post-election stabilization, with improving confidence and declining interest rates [3][4] - The company expects a gradual improvement in asset quality and loan growth as macroeconomic conditions normalize [7][8] Other Important Information - The company is maintaining tight control on costs, which declined by 2% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-to-date in real terms [5] - The management is preparing for potential strategic alliances and partnerships to enhance resilience and adapt to market changes [66][68] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term growth expectations and segment growth - Management indicated that loan growth is expected to come mainly from corporates and SMEs, with retail picking up later in 2026 as economic conditions improve [32][33] Question: ROE expectations for next year - Management anticipates a medium-term target ROE of high single digits to low double digits for 2026, depending on the pace of economic recovery [51][52] Question: Corporate vs. retail loan mix - The current loan mix is tilted towards corporate loans, but management expects a more balanced approach by the end of 2026 as retail demand increases [59][60] Question: Asset quality and NPL dynamics - Management believes that the NPL ratio may peak in Q4 2025, with expectations for gradual improvement as macro conditions normalize [76][77] Question: Liquidity conditions and potential constraints - Management noted that increasing money demand post-elections should support deposit growth, and they are prepared to tap international markets if conditions allow [86]