分组1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is set to begin next week, with a rate announcement expected on Wednesday and a press conference by Jay Powell at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time [1] - There is significant division among FOMC members regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others oppose any cuts [2] - The current economic indicators suggest solid growth, but inflation has not yet reached the Fed's 2% target, which may lead to upward pressure on inflation [6][7] 分组2 - The Fed is likely to maintain its current policy stance, avoiding any rate cuts for the remainder of the year, as the ultimate decision will depend on economic data [5][6] - Corporate profits are reportedly strong, and banks have indicated improving credit quality, suggesting a favorable economic environment for equities [12][13] - The bond market remains uncertain, with expectations that interest rates will stay within a trading range due to mixed economic signals [13] 分组3 - The weakening dollar has led to discussions about alternative assets, with some market participants favoring gold and silver over Bitcoin as a hedge against economic uncertainty [14][15] - Bitcoin is viewed as having potential upside due to increased liquidity in the market, but its role as a true alternative to the dollar remains to be seen [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates aggressively in early 2026 due to labor market weakness, inflation uncertainty, and political pressure, according to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Conditions - The job market is still flagging, particularly in early 2026, which will lead to insufficient job growth and rising unemployment, prompting the Fed to cut rates [2]. - Zandi anticipates three cuts of a quarter percentage point each before mid-year 2026, contrasting with market expectations of only two cuts later in the year [1][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Outlook - Current market pricing indicates a first cut not until at least April 2026, with a second cut likely around September, while Fed officials are even more cautious, expecting only one cut throughout the year [3][4]. - The Fed's individual officials' expectations suggest a tepid pace for any potential reductions, with recent minutes indicating that the decision for a cut was a close call [4]. Group 3: Political Influence - The potential for President Trump to reshape the Fed's hierarchy adds uncertainty, as he currently has three appointees on the board and is likely to appoint another loyalist soon [5][6]. - Trump's advocacy for lower interest rates may lead to increased political pressure on the Fed, especially with midterm congressional elections approaching [7].

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is expected to face significant pressure in the upcoming year if the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates more than anticipated due to political influences [1] Group 1 - Commerzbank indicates that political pressure may lead to unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]