The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday fell by -0.09%.  The dollar posted modest losses on Monday ahead of Tuesday's US Nov payrolls report.  The dollar came under pressure on Monday after the Dec Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions unexpectedly contracted, a dovish factor for Fed policy. The dollar dropped to its low after Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Fed's policy stance is unnecessarily restrictive on the economy.  The dollar recovered from its worst level after stocks declined, ...

The dollar remained under pressure after hitting a seven-week low overnight following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates and signal further cuts.The Fed delivered a 25 basis-points rate reduction, as expected, but sounded less cautious about further policy easing than anticipated.Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statement seemed to suggest the risks of higher inflation are less dramatic than the risks of a weaker labor market, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister said in a note. ...

The FOMC raised its 2025 GDP estimate to 1.7% from 1.6% in September and raised its 2026 GDP estimate to 2.3% from 1.8% in September. The FOMC cut its 2025 core PCE price estimate to 3.0% from 3.1% in September and cut its 2026 core PCE price estimate to 2.5% from 2.6% in September.The Fed's "dot plot" of interest rate projections shows the median forecast for the fed funds rate is 3.375% for the end of 2026, implying one 25 bp rate cut next year, unchanged from September.The FOMC, as expected, cut the fed ...

Markets widely expect a quarter point reduction when the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on December 9-10, and a focus will be on any signals about how much additional easing lies ahead. The Traders are pricing around 86% odds of Fed cut next Wednesday, and potentially 2-3 more reductions next year, LSEG data showed. Fed officials have been carefully watching the labour market to determine whether the Live Events Data overnight showed the number of Americans filing new applications for ...

The dollar is on pace for its longest losing streak since the summer of 2020, pressured partly by stronger expectations for lower U.S. interest rates.The WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, was down 0.1%. If it closes lower today, it would mark eight consecutive days of declines, its longest losing streak since June 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.One driver has been a stronger yen on rising Bank of Japan rate-hike expectations. Higher rates appeal to investors ...

Futures fell, breaking a five-day winning streak, and the dollar stayed weak after a selloff in cryptocurrencies in the prior session. ...

Core Viewpoint - Most Asian currencies exhibited stability during early Asian trading, with the dollar facing modest downside pressure according to MUFG bank [1] Currency Stability - Asian currencies remained stable in early trading sessions, indicating a balanced market environment [1] - The dollar is experiencing modest downside pressure, suggesting potential fluctuations in currency exchange rates [1]

Group 1 - The dollar is trading near a one-week low due to softer-than-expected U.S. economic data, which has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [1][2] - Retail sales and core wholesale prices in September rose less than anticipated, while the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for November unexpectedly declined, indicating a contraction in private payrolls [2]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index fell by -0.44% due to weaker-than-expected US economic data, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] - US September retail sales rose by +0.2% month-over-month, below expectations of +0.4% [2] - The final demand PPI for September increased by +2.7% year-over-year, slightly above expectations of +2.6%, while PPI excluding food and energy rose by +2.6%, below expectations of +2.7% [3] - The Conference Board's US November consumer confidence index dropped by -6.8 to a 7-month low of 88.7, significantly lower than the expected 93.3 [4] Market Reactions - The markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the FOMC at the next meeting on December 9-10 [4] - The euro rose by +0.45% against the dollar, supported by the weaker dollar and positive economic news from the Eurozone [5] - Eurozone new car registrations in October increased by +5.8% year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise [6] - The USD/JPY fell by -0.56% as the yen strengthened amid concerns of potential Japanese government intervention in the forex market [7]

Currency Market Overview - The yen received support as Japanese officials increased verbal intervention to address its decline, while the dollar is on track for its largest weekly rise in six weeks [1][2] - The yen rose 0.4% to 156.82 per dollar, although it remained near a 10-month low of 157.90 and is expected to lose 1.5% for the week [2] - The yen has fallen approximately 6% since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's election on October 4, with concerns over Japan's fiscal position due to her spending policies [3] Government Intervention - Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama indicated that intervention is a possibility to manage excessive volatility, which has heightened trader alertness for potential yen buying [1][2] - The last significant intervention by Tokyo involved spending 5.53 trillion yen (nearly $37 billion) in July 2024 to stabilize the yen from 38-year lows [4] Economic Stimulus - Takaichi's cabinet approved a substantial economic stimulus package of 21.3 trillion yen ($135.4 billion), aimed at bolstering the economy [3] Broader Market Context - The dollar is set for a weekly gain, with mixed signals regarding potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, influenced by a delayed U.S. nonfarm payrolls report [6] - New York Fed President John Williams suggested that the central bank could still consider rate cuts in the near term, which has led to increased market speculation about a rate cut next month [7]