With nine months until the US midterm elections, Wall Street is starting to game out trading scenarios leading up to the November vote. Top of mind is the American consumer, who is not all right, at least going by the latest sentiment surveys. Investors are eying trades that would benefit from efforts by the the Trump administration to lower the cost of living. That includes newfangled financial firms that may see higher demand as some tax changes and other cost-of-living policies are implemented, and hom ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. fintech stocks are expected to gain an advantage as the government adopts a more populist, affordability-driven agenda ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections, potentially benefiting fintech challengers over traditional lenders [1]. Group 1: Fintech Companies Positioned for Growth - Companies associated with consumer-friendly credit and small-business services, such as buy-now, pay-later providers Affirm and Klarna, as well as fintech firms SoFi and Block, are well-positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [2]. - Other potential winners identified include restaurant technology platform Toast and e-commerce firm Shopify, which may also capitalize on the affordability trend [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Performance - Traditional lenders experienced a rally following Trump's return to the White House in 2025, driven by expectations of a lighter regulatory environment; however, the focus on affordability may shift investor attention towards fintech challengers [3]. - In 2025, SoFi's stock increased by approximately 70%, while Affirm's rose by over 22%. In contrast, Block's stock fell by more than 23%, underperforming both its fintech peers and the broader market, which saw the Nasdaq Composite rise by about 20.4% during the same period [3]. Group 3: Political Influence on the Financial Sector - The rise of populism, linked to the affordability focus as midterms approach, suggests that companies offering lower-cost, user-friendly lending tools or services aimed at small businesses could see significant gains [4]. - Recent actions by the U.S. president, including a call for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, indicate a pushback from the banking industry and reinforce the affordability agenda that could favor smaller fintechs [4][5]. - An executive order signed by the president aims to restrict large institutional investors from competing with individual homebuyers, further supporting the affordability-focused agenda that may benefit smaller fintech companies [5].

Emily BaryEmily Bary is MarketWatch's assistant managing editor, tech. She is based in New York. ...

Political & Economic Risk - Populist rhetoric targeting the wealthy could alienate them, potentially impacting urban project funding [1] Social Impact - Wealthy individuals play a role in financing urban projects [1]

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The Liberal-National coalition, Australia’s main opposition, has been shedding conservative voters to One Nation, the populist-right party. Lately the coalition has started losing politicians too https://t.co/0szlSXg94N ...