Potential Tariffs

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摩根士丹利:中国医疗保健_中小盘CRO和CDMO_潜在关税和美国食品药品监督管理局动物试验规则的影响
摩根· 2025-04-27 03:56
Investment Rating - The industry view for mid-cap CRO/CDMOs is rated as Attractive [5] Core Insights - Direct tariff exposure for major China CRO/CDMO companies is estimated to be between 0%-10%, which is manageable for most leading firms in the sector [3][8] - Increasing macro uncertainties, including tariffs and funding dynamics, are expected to lead to softer funding beta and more cautious R&D budgets in 2025 [3][21] - The FDA's proposal to phase out animal testing is unlikely to have an immediate impact on most CROs, as alternatives are limited [8][14] Company-Level Picks - Pharmaron-H is highlighted as the most preferred pick due to its strong alpha from CMC and minimal tariff exposure [4] - GenScript is favored for its turnaround in non-cell business and robust contributions from its CGT investment [4] - Asymchem is noted for its growth in the GLP-1 area, though there are concerns about its overseas facility loss in 2025 [4] - Joinn Lab and Tigermed are viewed positively for their long-term prospects, despite expectations of a slower domestic funding recovery [4] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the general outlook for CRO/CDMO companies is improving in 2025, but remains softer than earlier expectations due to disrupted global funding momentum [21] - Quality players with unique barriers and visionary overseas facility deployment are expected to outperform their peers [21] Financial Forecasts and Valuations - Tigermed's revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.1%, 8.1%, and 11.6% YoY, reflecting a cautious outlook [26] - The price target for Tigermed has been reduced from Rmb57.5 to Rmb37.7 due to updated earnings estimations [28]