Q2 环比改善、复苏有望延续，持续看好创新主线 医药生物 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 09 月 01 日 | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 | | Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn | | 联系人：刘照芊 | | Email：liuzq04@zts.com.cn | | 上市公司数 | 494 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 76,517.64 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 69,437.14 | 行业-市场走势对比 1、《创新药产业链多家龙头半年盈 喜，"全球新"资产加速奔跑》 2025-08-25 迎来产业加速发展期》2025-08-21 景气度提升》2025-08-17 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 简称 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and raises the target price for both the Hong Kong and A-share listings to HKD 27.0 and RMB 39.0 respectively [5][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.342 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9%, aligning closely with previous profit forecasts [1]. - The overall new order growth for the first half of 2025 continued at a rate of over 10% year-on-year, with the company maintaining its full-year revenue growth guidance of 10%-15% [4]. - The top 20 pharmaceutical companies showed strong revenue growth of 48% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with expectations for continued growth in the second half [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 406 million, up 15.6% year-on-year and 16.3% quarter-on-quarter, slightly below expectations due to higher-than-expected losses from non-operating items [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 33.7%, remaining stable year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, while the adjusted net profit margin was 11.7%, showing a slight increase [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Laboratory services revenue grew by 15.2% year-on-year and 9.6% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong growth in biological science services [3]. - CMC services revenue increased by 17.4% year-on-year and 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to growth from top 20 pharmaceutical clients [3]. - Clinical research services revenue rose by 8.9% year-on-year and 10.0% quarter-on-quarter, although margins declined due to competitive pricing in the domestic market [3]. Market Outlook - The company expects continued revenue growth in the second half of 2025, although year-on-year growth may moderate due to a high base in the second half of 2024 [4]. - The report highlights that laboratory services and CMC will remain the main drivers of revenue growth, with profit margins expected to improve in the latter half of the year [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec [1][6] Core Views - WuXi AppTec's 2Q25 performance significantly exceeded market expectations, leading to an upward revision of the full-year revenue guidance to a growth rate of 13%-17% YoY [1][5] - The target prices have been raised to HKD 128.5 for H shares and RMB 113.5 for A shares, reflecting a potential upside of 15% from current prices [2][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2Q25, the company reported a revenue of RMB 11,144.7 million, representing a 20.4% increase YoY and a 15.4% increase QoQ [5][7] - The adjusted Non-IFRS net profit for 2Q25 was RMB 3,637.1 million, up 47.9% YoY and 35.8% QoQ [5][7] - The gross margin improved to 45.8%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points YoY [5][7] - The number of orders on hand reached a record high of RMB 566.9 billion, up 37.2% YoY [5][6] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 is set at RMB 45,223 million, with a projected growth rate of 15% [8][9] - The adjusted Non-IFRS net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 18,532 million, indicating a substantial growth of 98% compared to 2024 [8][9] - The report anticipates a continued increase in profitability driven by late-stage projects and production efficiency improvements [5][6] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The strong growth in small molecule D&M and TIDES revenues is a key driver for the company's performance [5][6] - The TIDES business saw a remarkable growth of 80.2% YoY, with a backlog of orders increasing by 48.8% YoY [5][6] - Management expects double-digit growth in continuous operating revenue in the second half of 2025 [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector continues to strengthen, particularly in innovative drug development, with notable gains in companies like WuXi AppTec and others, reflecting a robust demand for CRO/CDMO services driven by global innovation in drug research and development [1][2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - WuXi AppTec reported a revenue of 20.8 billion RMB for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with a non-GAAP net profit of 5.58 billion RMB, up 26.5% [2]. - The TIDES business (oligonucleotides and peptides) achieved a revenue of 5.03 billion RMB, showing a remarkable growth of 141.6% year-on-year, with a backlog of orders increasing by 48.8% [2][3]. - The company has a total order backlog of 56.69 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 37.2%, indicating strong future growth potential [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The global CRO/CDMO market is expected to maintain double-digit growth due to the increasing demand for innovative drug development and the rising outsourcing penetration rate [2][3]. - Revolutionary technologies such as ADC, cell and gene therapy, and mRNA vaccines are driving rapid growth in specialized fields, creating a blue ocean market for CRO/CDMO companies [3][4]. - The industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation, with leading companies benefiting from their comprehensive service capabilities and global network, enhancing their competitive advantages [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The BoShi CSI Pharmaceutical 50 ETF provides investors with a convenient tool to capture the growth of leading companies in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, particularly in the CRO sector [4][5]. - The Hang Seng Medical ETF is positioned as an effective tool for investing in the Hong Kong medical sector, benefiting from policy optimizations and technological advancements [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF (513280), which has seen a continuous inflow of funds and is the only ETF in its index to achieve net inflow this year [1][8] - WuXi AppTec announced a projected revenue growth of over 60% and an adjusted net profit growth of over 67% for the first half of 2025, driven by strong downstream demand for antibody-drug conjugates and a solid market position [3][5] - The performance of the underlying stocks in the Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF is mixed, with notable gains in the CRO sector, including WuXi AppTec rising over 10% and WuXi Biologics increasing nearly 3% [3][4] Group 2 - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the CRO and CDMO sectors have exceeded expectations in their mid-year performance, suggesting a recovery in demand and potential for profit and valuation increases [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the recovery of the CRO and CDMO sectors, with signs of improving orders and a gradual recovery in the investment environment [6][7] - The innovation and recovery themes are highlighted as key investment lines, with a focus on innovative drugs and medical devices, as well as the recovery of the CXO sector [7][8]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened slightly lower on July 17 but then experienced a rebound, with all three major indices showing positive performance, particularly the ChiNext index which rose nearly 1% [2] - The total market capitalization reached 14.20 trillion CNY, with a trading volume of 7698.06 million hands and a turnover rate of 1.46% [3] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector saw a significant surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Weikang Pharmaceutical and Chengdu Xian Dao, both reaching a 20% increase [4][5] - Notable stocks in the pharmaceutical sector included: - Chengdu Xian Dao: 21.46 CNY, up 20.02% - Weikang Pharmaceutical: 20.71 CNY, up 19.99% - Other stocks like Lifespring Pharmaceutical and Zhejiang Zhenyuan also saw increases of around 10% [5][6] - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector also experienced notable gains, with companies like Fudan Zhangjiang and Kanyin Biotech showing significant price increases [6] Robotics Sector - The humanoid robot concept stocks remained active, with Nanjing Julong hitting the daily limit up of 20%, and other companies like Dongshan Precision and Taijing Technology also seeing substantial gains [7][8] - On July 17, the stock of Aowei New Materials achieved a 20% limit up, marking its seventh consecutive trading day of gains, with a closing price of 27.89 CNY [10][11] Policy Impact - The National Healthcare Security Administration recently announced the initiation of the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, which will include 55 drug varieties, focusing on mature "old drugs" while excluding innovative drugs from the procurement list [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Asymchem, Kangji Medical, Weigao, Angelalign, and Hygeia, while Tigermed, WuXi XDC, WuXi Biologics, and Frontage are rated as "Neutral" [11][15][18][27][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the healthcare sector, particularly in the CDMO segment, with expectations for earnings resilience driven by new order growth and demand from both US and EU markets, as well as from Chinese biotech licensing [2][3]. - The Medtech sector is anticipated to see clearer recovery in the second half of 2025, supported by normalized hospital activity and new product contributions [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring pricing competition and consumption recovery signals in the services sector, particularly in consumer-related categories [4]. Summary by Sections CRO/CDMO - Earnings are expected to remain resilient, especially for companies with exposure to late-stage development and manufacturing projects [2]. - Key investor focus areas include new order growth, client behavior shifts amid policy uncertainties, and pricing and margin recovery [2][13]. - EPS estimates have been revised upward by an average of 1.3% to 1.4% for 2025-2027, with target prices adjusted by an average of 4% [1]. Medtech - Recovery is expected to materialize more clearly in the second half of 2025, with key areas to watch including the pace of VBP rollout and surgical volume trends [3]. - Companies like Weigao and Kangji are ramping up new product launches and global expansions, despite some tariff-related uncertainties [3]. Services - Reimbursement control and DRG/DIP pressure are likely to persist, impacting pricing and volumes [4]. - The report notes a cautious outlook for M&A activity, with companies like Hygeia becoming more positive while others remain cautious [9]. Financial Estimates - The report provides detailed financial estimates for various companies, indicating expected sales growth and net income projections for FY25 and beyond [14][19]. - For instance, WuXi Apptec is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 10-15% for FY25, while Asymchem anticipates double-digit revenue growth alongside margin improvements [19]. Target Price Changes - Target prices for several companies have been adjusted, with Asymchem's target price increased to HK$85.5, reflecting a 13% change [11][15]. - WuXi Biologics' target price is set at HK$25.6, based on a 12-month forward P/E of 22x [15][31]. Backlog and Order Trajectory - The report includes a detailed analysis of backlog and new order trajectories for key players in the CRO/CDMO space, indicating significant year-on-year growth in sales and backlog for companies like WuXi Apptec and WuXi Biologics [17].

Group 1: Company Overview and Investment Activities - The company is Hangzhou Baicheng Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd., with stock code 301096 and abbreviation Baicheng Pharmaceutical [1] - The investor relations activities include online meetings and strategy sessions held from June 9 to June 20, 2025 [2] - Key participants include the Chairman and General Manager, Lou Jinfang, and the Financial Director and Board Secretary, Cheng Dandan [2] Group 2: Drug Development Progress - The company has multiple new drug pipelines, with 2 IND approvals for Class 1 new drugs targeting areas such as the nervous system and oncology [3] - The global market for central nervous system drugs exceeded $500 billion in 2023, with China's market at approximately ¥173.4 billion, indicating significant growth potential [3] - The central nervous system drug market in China is projected to grow from about ¥40 billion in 2025 to ¥200 billion by 2030 [3] Group 3: Specific Drug Projects - BIOS-0623 is a novel pain relief drug with advantages such as rapid onset and lower effective doses, showing superior efficacy compared to pregabalin [4] - BIOS-0632 is a strong AAK1 kinase inhibitor that demonstrates faster onset and better efficacy in diabetic neuropathic pain models compared to existing treatments [4] - BIOS-0629, a potential Best-in-Class second-generation XPO1 inhibitor, shows significant anti-tumor efficacy in various cancer models [5][6] Group 4: Market Trends and Opportunities - The global market for anti-tumor drugs reached $235.7 billion in 2023, with China's market at approximately ¥280 billion, driven by increasing cancer incidence [5] - The autoimmune disease drug market is expected to grow from $113.7 billion in 2018 to $176.7 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 3.7% globally and over 20% in China [6][7] Group 5: Improved Drug Development - The company has over 20 projects in the improved drug category, with 11 receiving clinical approval, indicating a robust pipeline [10] - The market for improved drugs in China is expected to reach ¥560 billion by 2025, suggesting a favorable investment return [11][12] Group 6: Subsidiary Development - The subsidiary, Saimer Pharmaceutical, aims to become a global supplier of raw materials and formulations, with a production area of over 260 acres and 16.3 million square meters of GMP-compliant facilities [13][14] - Saimer has successfully registered 435 projects and has 49 products approved, showcasing its strong production capabilities [14] Group 7: CRO Business Status - The CRO/CDMO industry is experiencing a downturn due to cautious investment and increased competition, leading to a decline in orders [15][16] - Recent regulatory changes are expected to positively impact the CRO/CDMO sector, potentially restoring investment enthusiasm [16][17] Group 8: International Expansion Plans - The company is accelerating its internationalization efforts, establishing partnerships to enhance global resource connectivity [19] - Saimer has obtained the EU CEP certificate for minoxidil, marking a significant step in international business expansion [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the healthcare sector, including Asymchem, InnoCare, Samsung Biologics, Shandong Weigao Group, United Imaging, and Zai Lab [29][30]. Core Insights - The China biotech sector has seen a significant re-rating, with a year-to-date increase of 72%, driven by a surge in licensing-out deals, particularly in PD-1/VEGF bispecifics, which has validated asset quality and innovation [1][2]. - Investors are optimistic about the sustainability of this momentum, with expectations for more licensing deals to follow, including potential major deals from CSPC and Sino Biopharma [2]. - The CRO/CDMO sector has also benefited from increased licensing activity, with a 25% year-to-date growth, and companies like Tigermed and WuXi AppTec are highlighted for their resilience [8]. - Medtech is showing signs of recovery, with equipment tendering up 91% year-over-year in May, although revenue recognition remains a challenge due to inventory digestion and centralized procurement processes [8][10]. Summary by Sections China Biotech Licensing and Global Pharma Engagement - The rebound in China biotech is largely attributed to licensing deals with global pharma, enhancing confidence in the quality and innovation of Chinese biotech assets [2]. - Notable licensing deals include Akeso to Summit and 3S Bio to Pfizer, which have allowed companies to monetize global market valuations through royalties [2]. CDMO/CRO Implications - The CRO/CDMO sector has seen a 25% increase year-to-date, with Tigermed reporting a 20% year-over-year increase in new orders for Q1 [8]. - WuXi AppTec and Asymchem are expected to deliver resilient earnings due to their focus on late-stage and commercial manufacturing [8]. Medtech Recovery and Tendering Trends - Medtech has faced challenges, with a year-to-date decline of 4%, but there are signs of recovery in equipment tendering, which increased by 91% year-over-year in May [8][10]. - Companies like United Imaging and Mindray are expected to turn positive in their growth trajectories in the coming quarters [8]. Global Pharma Engagement - Global large pharma continues to recognize the importance of China in their business development strategies, particularly in the context of biopharma innovation cycles [10]. - Companies like GE Healthcare and Philips remain cautious about the capital equipment procurement environment in China, despite positive tendering momentum [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wuxi Apptec, Pharmaron, and Tigermed A/H, while Wuxi Bio and Joinn A/H are rated as "Neutral" [5][107]. Core Insights - The biopharma industry in China is expected to see a mild increase in R&D activities and outsourcing over the next 12 months, with an average R&D budget increase of 10.8% YoY and an outsourcing rate rising from 46.7% to 48.3% [2][14]. - Biopharma managers are increasingly considering out-licensing as a primary financing option, rising from 58% in 2024 to 75% in 2025, which is anticipated to benefit CROs/CDMOs [3][16]. - The demand for R&D speed and capacity is growing, with biopharma companies prioritizing on-time delivery and quality when selecting CROs [3][50]. Summary by Sections R&D Budget and Outsourcing - Biopharma managers expect their R&D budgets to increase by an average of 10.8% YoY, with a higher willingness to allocate more funds to outsourcing [23][34]. - The overall outsourcing ratio is projected to increase from 46.7% to 48.3% in the next 12 months, with late-stage trials expected to recover more than early-stage trials [34][50]. Business Development (BD) Activities - 75% of surveyed biopharma managers view BD as the primary financing option, reflecting a significant increase in BD activities [3][16]. - The report indicates that the reinvestment of BD income may lead to more CRO orders, enhancing growth opportunities for CROs/CDMOs [16][50]. Pricing Trends - Biopharma managers anticipate smaller price cuts in the next 12 months compared to the previous year, indicating an improving demand/supply situation [4][56]. - The report highlights that no price cuts are expected for manufacturing in the upcoming year, which is a positive sign for the industry [4][56]. Vendor Selection - Wuxi Apptec remains the top choice for preclinical lab-testing, while Tigermed is the preferred vendor for clinical testing and trials [5][74]. - The criteria for selecting CROs emphasize quality, on-time delivery, and reputation, with a growing importance placed on delivery speed [65][92]. Market Outlook - The survey results suggest an overall positive outlook for the CRO/CDMO sector in China, with expectations of improved R&D activity and outsourcing compared to 2024 [5][50]. - The geopolitical uncertainties are expected to have limited impact on the operations of China CROs, with less than 10% of Wuxi Apptec's goods subject to US tariffs [5][107].