CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 2 月 27 日 药明生物 2269 HK 中国医疗保健行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 抛售：资金流动驱动，非基本面因素 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 2 月 26 日发布的题为《Sell-off: Flow-led, not fundamentals》 的 报 告 ， 药 明 生 物 （ WuXi Biologics） 及 其 子 公 司 药 明 合 联 （ WuXi XDC） 今 日 分 别 下 跌 约 7%/8%，而香港上市 CRO/CDMO 板块整体下跌 2-9%。中信里昂认为这些波动并非基本面驱动，更多可能是仓位 调整和资金流动所致。 三月指引季或成下一个催化因素 催化因素 (1) 双/多特异性药物引领的项目动能，有望推动2026 年收入重新加速增长；(2) 2025 年新增项目数超预期（净增128 个项目，超越市场预期），为 2026 年预期增速快于 2025 年奠定基础；(3) 地缘政治估值折价因素消退，2026 年该 ...

Group 1: Industry Insights - The recent national centralized procurement involves 316 commonly used drugs, with a procurement period extending to the end of 2028, providing stable expectations for the pharmaceutical industry, which may impact the order environment for Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical as a raw material and CDMO enterprise [1] - The innovative drug sector shows a clear recovery trend, with a 13.34% year-on-year increase in IND applications in 2025, leading to heightened demand in the CRO/CDMO industry, where leading companies like Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical are expected to benefit from optimized order structures [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical expressed significant potential in its peptide CDMO business, particularly after the patent expiration of Semaglutide, indicating the company will actively seize market opportunities, although specific impacts were not quantified [1] - The stock price of Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical has shown fluctuations, with a range of 0.89% over the past week and a trading volume of 1.05 billion yuan on February 12, 2026, closing at 18.08 yuan, reflecting a daily increase of 0.61% [2] - On February 12, 2026, there was a net inflow of 707.68 million yuan in main funds, reversing the previous day's net outflow of 1,751.05 million yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese stock market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.02% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.14% while the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.80% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.41 trillion RMB, indicating a relatively quiet trading day [1] Core Insights - AI applications and media stocks led the market gains, driven by investor anticipation for updates from domestic AI model developers [1] - The healthcare sector also saw gains, with a shift in the CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) field from beta-driven to visibility-driven growth, suggesting a focus on high-certainty compound growth targets for 2026 [1] - The Chinese healthcare sector is expected to perform strongly in 2025, primarily due to the global expansion of emerging assets [1] - Biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, and CRO/CDMO sectors are leading the market, contrasting with negative returns in other sectors [1] Additional Important Information - The white liquor sector experienced a decline, leading the market downwards, along with corrections in the real estate and agriculture sectors [2] - Cash transaction volumes are continuously shrinking, indicating a cautious market sentiment [3] - Current fund flow preferences lean towards selling, with a configuration ratio of 1.06 times, while buying is focused on gold, lithium, and GPU sectors, and selling is occurring in memory and defense sectors [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector**: China's healthcare sector, specifically focusing on Biotech/Pharma and CRO/CDMO segments - **Trend**: Transitioning from "go-global beta" to "visibility-driven alpha" as the sector shows robust performance in 2025, driven by emerging assets expanding globally [1][2] Core Insights - **Investment Strategy Shift**: Investors are moving from beta trades based on licensing expectations to focusing on tangible execution and visibility into key data readouts and earnings delivery for 2026 [1][2] - **CRO/CDMO Outlook**: Positive outlook for CDMOs due to accelerated growth, strong product cycles, and reasonable valuations. Upgrades for WuXi AppTec and WuXi XDC to "Buy" [2][11] - **Biotech/Pharma Selectivity**: A more selective approach is advised, favoring companies with validated early data and realistic deal expectations. Preferred stocks include Kelun Biotech, Henlius, and Hansoh [2][7] - **MedTech Neutral Stance**: Cautious outlook on MedTech, with a recommendation to buy AngelAlign and Weigao, while maintaining a neutral stance overall [2][7] - **Healthcare Services Caution**: Downgraded outlook for healthcare services due to cost control measures and weak consumption cycles, with downgrades for Hygeia and Jinxin [2][7] Emerging Technologies - **AI and New Modalities**: Anticipated advancements in AI within healthcare and a strengthening of China's leadership in new modalities such as next-gen ADCs and innovative oligonucleotide medicines [3][7] - **Surgical Robotics**: 2026 is expected to be pivotal for surgical robotics commercialization, driven by new national billing rules [3] Financial Metrics and Projections - **Earnings Estimates**: EPS estimates for Chinese CDMOs/CROs revised up by 3%-4% for FY26-27 due to improved earnings visibility [11] - **Capex Normalization**: Capital expenditure is returning to growth levels, focusing on high-potential modalities and overseas expansion [10][21] - **Valuation Recovery**: Valuations for WuXi AppTec and WuXi XDC are expected to recover modestly as visibility improves, although they still trade at a discount compared to global peers [10][14] Market Dynamics - **Geopolitical Sensitivity**: Market sensitivity to geopolitical headlines has decreased, with a clearer distinction between sentiment risk and actual business impact [10][27] - **Outsourcing Trends**: Despite geopolitical uncertainties, outsourcing rates are expected to rise, driven by cost efficiency and access to specialized technologies [28] Key Risks and Considerations - **Biosecure Act Impact**: The Biosecure Act's implications are being closely monitored, with expectations that any structural reallocation of outsourcing away from China will be gradual [42] - **Client Behavior**: Client concerns regarding the Biosecure Act have diminished, with high retention rates noted for WuXi's services [13] Conclusion - The healthcare sector in China is poised for a significant transformation as it shifts towards visibility-driven investments. Key players in the CDMO and Biotech/Pharma segments are expected to benefit from improved earnings visibility and a supportive funding environment, while caution remains in MedTech and healthcare services due to ongoing economic pressures.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268.HK) with a target price of HKD 75, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price of HKD 60.6 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The company's preliminary earnings forecast for 2025 aligns with expectations, projecting over 45% year-on-year revenue growth, over 70% gross profit growth, and over 38% net profit growth attributable to shareholders [8][11]. - WuXi AppTec has signed 70 new iCMC projects in 2025, benefiting from strong growth in the US and China, with over half of these projects coming from new ADC contributions [8][11]. - The company has provided a long-term revenue guidance of a 30-35% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, which is above the industry average of 25.6% CAGR [8][11]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to RMB 58.7 billion, RMB 79.4 billion, and RMB 105.9 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB 16.0 billion, RMB 21.2 billion, and RMB 29.1 billion [11][12]. - The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be approximately 35.8%, which is better than previous expectations [8][11]. - The company anticipates significant commercial revenue starting in 2027, with limited contributions expected in 2026 as it focuses on building commercial production records [8][11]. Capacity Expansion - WuXi AppTec is accelerating capacity expansion through both self-built facilities and acquisitions, with capital expenditures expected to rise to RMB 1.7 billion in 2026 from RMB 1.22 billion in 2025 [2][10]. - The company has established dual production bases in China and Singapore, with plans for further expansion, including new production lines in Wuxi and Singapore [2][10]. - The acquisition of Hefei and Dongyao Pharmaceutical is expected to enhance the company's production capacity and client network, contributing to a market share of over 24% in the global ADC outsourcing market [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268.HK) with a target price of HKD 75, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price of HKD 60.6 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - The company's preliminary earnings forecast for 2025 shows revenue growth exceeding 45% year-on-year, with gross profit growth over 70% and net profit growth exceeding 38% [8][11]. - WuXi AppTec has signed 70 new iCMC projects in 2025, benefiting from strong growth in the US and China, with over half of these projects coming from new ADC contributions [8][11]. - The company has provided a long-term revenue guidance of a 30-35% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, which is above the industry average of 25.6% CAGR [8][11]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to RMB 58.7 billion, RMB 79.4 billion, and RMB 105.9 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB 16.0 billion, RMB 21.2 billion, and RMB 29.1 billion [11][12]. - The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be around 35.8%, which is better than previous expectations [8][11]. - The company anticipates significant commercial revenue starting in 2027, with limited contributions expected in 2026 as it focuses on accumulating production records [8][11]. Capacity Expansion - WuXi AppTec is accelerating capacity expansion through both self-built facilities and acquisitions, with capital expenditures expected to rise to RMB 1.7 billion in 2026 from RMB 1.22 billion in 2025 [2][10]. - The company has established dual production bases in China and Singapore, with plans for further expansion, including new DP production lines in Wuxi and a new facility in Singapore expected to achieve GMP release in 2026 [2][10]. - The company has a global market share of over 24% in the ADC outsourcing service market, indicating a strong competitive position [10].

维亚生物(01873)尾盘涨超18%，截至发稿，涨18.09%，报2.35港元，成交额6470.58万港元。 浙商证券（601878）此前指，展望来看，随着CRO端的AI应用项目占比持续提升以及CDMO重大商业 化项目的陆续落地，该行看好公司高盈利能力的趋势持续。国盛证券（002670）认为，整体来看，公司 通过CRO与CDMO的协同发展、AI驱动研发提效及投资孵化生态构建，有望持续受益于全球创新药产 业景气度提升，推动业绩稳健增长与长期价值释放。 消息面上，维亚生物公众号近日披露，1月13日，公司在第44届J.P.Morgan Healthcare Conference期间成 功举办Viva Biotech Innovation Forum2026。研讨会围绕人工智能与新药物类型的前沿进展展开了深入讨 论。其中，维亚生物就AI赋能多肽药物研发全流程实验设计以及AI赋能多肽CRDMO平台展开分享，集 中体现了人工智能如何在研发与产业化关键环节的加速落地，成为本次会议的重要看点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since January 20, WuXi Biologics (02269) has outperformed its mainland CRO peers and the overall healthcare sector, indicating its relative resilience in the market [1] Group 1: Company Performance - WuXi Biologics has shown better stock performance compared to mainland CRO peers and the broader healthcare sector since January 20 [1] - The company benefits from a more diversified shareholder structure, which helps mitigate geopolitical risk impacts [1] Group 2: Growth Potential - There is an increased visibility for accelerated growth before 2026, suggesting that the company's potential performance may exceed current expectations [1] - As peers in the industry are expected to miss profit expectations in Q4 2025, capital is likely to flow back to WuXi Biologics [1] Group 3: Market Position and Valuation - WuXi Biologics remains the preferred stock in the mainland CRO/CDMO sector according to the report [1] - The company's valuation is at a discount compared to global peers, indicating potential for upward adjustment [1] - The target price for WuXi Biologics is set at 48.5 yuan, with a rating of outperforming the market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that WuXi Biologics (02269) has outperformed its mainland CRO peers and the overall healthcare sector since January 20 [1] - The company is considered to have relative resilience due to a more diversified shareholder structure, which helps buffer against geopolitical risks [1] - There is an increased visibility of accelerated growth before 2026, with potential performance possibly exceeding current expectations [1] Group 2 - As competitors in the CRO/CDMO sector are expected to underperform in Q4 2025, capital is likely to flow back to WuXi Biologics [1] - WuXi Biologics remains the preferred stock in the mainland CRO/CDMO space, with a valuation discount compared to global peers [1] - The target price for WuXi Biologics is set at 48.5 yuan, with a rating of outperforming the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Since January 20, WuXi Biologics has outperformed its mainland CRO peers and the overall healthcare sector, indicating its relative resilience in the market [1] Group 1: Company Performance - WuXi Biologics has shown better stock performance compared to mainland CRO peers and the overall healthcare sector since January 20 [1] - The company benefits from a more diversified shareholder structure, which helps buffer against geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Growth Potential - There is an increased visibility for accelerated growth by 2026, suggesting potential performance may exceed current expectations [1] - As peers in the industry failed to meet profit expectations in Q4 2025, capital is flowing back to WuXi Biologics [1] Group 3: Market Position and Valuation - WuXi Biologics remains the preferred stock in the mainland CRO/CDMO sector according to the report [1] - The company's valuation is at a discount compared to global peers, indicating potential for upside [1] - The target price set for WuXi Biologics is HKD 48.5, with a rating of "outperform" [1]