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中国 - 电力_7 月用电量反弹;太阳能装机量环比继续下降
2025-08-31 16:21
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Power Sector in China - **Date**: August 25, 2025 - **Source**: Morgan Stanley Research Core Insights 1. **Power Consumption Growth**: National power consumption increased by 4.5% year-over-year (yoy) in the first seven months of 2025, compared to 3.7% in the first half of 2025. July 2025 saw a notable growth of 8.6% yoy, with all sub-sectors outpacing growth from 1H25 [2][8] 2. **Power Demand by Sector**: In July 2025, power demand growth by sector was as follows: primary (20.2% yoy), secondary (4.7% yoy), tertiary (10.7% yoy), and residential (18.0% yoy), all exceeding the growth rates of 1H25 [2][8] 3. **Total Power Generation**: Total power generation reached 5,470 billion kWh in 7M25, marking a 1.3% yoy increase. Solar and wind power generation rose significantly by 22.7% and 10.4% yoy, respectively, accounting for 17% of total power generation, up from 14% in 7M24 [3] 4. **New Power Capacity Additions**: China added 325 GW of power capacity in 7M25, a 75.7% yoy increase. This included 223 GW of solar capacity (up 81% yoy) and 54 GW of wind capacity (up 79% yoy). However, new installations in July were significantly lower than in May [4][8] 5. **Investment in Power Generation**: Investments in power generation capacity and power grid reached RMB 429 billion and RMB 332 billion in 7M25, reflecting increases of 3.4% and 12.5%, respectively [4] Additional Important Insights 1. **Decline in Monthly Installations**: Monthly new installations of solar and wind power in July were 11.0 GW and 2.3 GW, respectively, which represented a significant decline compared to 92.9 GW and 26.3 GW in May [4][8] 2. **Thermal Capacity Growth**: Newly installed thermal capacity increased by 16 GW in July, marking a 164% yoy increase, indicating a shift in energy generation strategy [4][8] 3. **Future Expectations**: The outlook for solar installations remains weak for the remainder of 2025, primarily due to low plant utilization rates [8] Conclusion The power sector in China is experiencing a rebound in consumption and generation, with significant growth in renewable energy sources. However, the decline in new installations of solar and wind power raises concerns about future capacity growth. The investment landscape appears positive, but challenges remain in maintaining momentum in renewable energy installations.