Summary of Key Points from the Earnings Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Autos & Shared Mobility in North America - **Key Themes for Earnings Season**: Memory shortage, commodity inflation, powertrain mix shift, physical AI, and policy impacts [1][11][17] Core Company Insights - **Preference for ICE over EV**: The company maintains an overweight (OW) rating on General Motors (GM) and Ford (F), while underweight (UW) on Rivian (RIVN) and Lucid (LCID) [1][2] - **Ford and GM Outlook**: Both companies are expected to present a positive outlook for 2026, having reduced EV exposure and shifted focus to higher-margin ICE products [3][4] - **Risks for EV OEMs**: Continued demand challenges for RIVN and LCID, with expectations of downside to profitability due to rising commodity costs [4][25] Financial Performance Expectations - **Earnings Projections**: - Ford: Revenue of $42.9 billion, adjusted EBIT of $1.14 billion, and EPS of $0.14 [12] - GM: Revenue of $45.3 billion, adjusted EBIT of $2.73 billion, and EPS of $2.23 [12] - RIVN: Revenue of $1.28 billion, adjusted EBIT of -$0.81 billion, and EPS of -$0.79 [12] - LCID: Revenue of $439 million, adjusted EBIT of -$0.77 billion, and EPS of -$2.55 [12] Commodity and Memory Cost Impacts - **Memory Shortages**: Anticipated cost headwinds of $300-$400 per vehicle for EVs and $100-$200 for ICE vehicles due to DRAM shortages [17][21] - **Commodity Inflation**: Significant increases in commodity prices, with lithium up 107%, copper up 45%, and steel up 37% since last January, potentially impacting margins for high-EV-exposed OEMs [18][21] Market Dynamics - **Auto Retail Outlook**: Positive sentiment towards auto retail, particularly for companies like Carvana (CVNA), with expectations of strong demand and resilient earnings models [5][10] - **Consumer Credit Concerns**: Elevated delinquency rates expected in January, but potential improvements linked to higher tax refunds could benefit auto OEMs and retailers [27] Strategic Shifts - **Powertrain Mix Shift**: Ford and GM are reducing EV capacity in favor of ICE vehicles, which could yield significant EBIT tailwinds [23] - **Investment in AI**: Increased capital allocation towards autonomy and robotics, with a focus on maintaining competitive advantages in the market [26] Policy Impacts - **Affordability and Credit Availability**: Concerns regarding auto affordability due to tariff-related inflation and tightening credit conditions, with potential impacts on consumer behavior and auto sales [27] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic for ICE manufacturers like Ford and GM, while EV manufacturers face significant challenges due to rising costs and demand issues. The auto retail sector shows promise, but credit conditions may pose risks in the near term.