Mortgage spreads have been blown out for a long time, with agency-backed mortgages trading at times more than 200 basis points above the respective Treasury yield. The mortgage REITs recognized this as an opportunity to buy government backed assets at unusually high yields. This article is not about Dynex (DX), but we will start there as they epitomize what is going on in agency mREITs right now. Terrence Connelly, CIO of Dynex, noted on the 2Q25 earnings call: “Increasingly, there's a need for more private ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total investment income for Q1 2025 was $36.5 million, a decrease of $1 million from Q4 2024, primarily due to a decline in interest income [13] - Adjusted net investment income (NII) for Q1 2025 was $18.5 million, compared to $18.1 million in Q1 2024, with adjusted NII per share at $0.54, down from $0.59 year-over-year [9] - Net asset value at quarter end was $677.9 million, or $19.39 per share, compared to $655.7 million, or $19.33 per share as of 12/31/2024 [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Originations totaled $115.6 million for Q1 2025, with $102.1 million invested in seven new portfolio companies [10] - Debt investments amounted to $111.6 million, with first lien securities accounting for approximately 94% of the total [10] - The debt portfolio was valued at approximately $1 billion, with 79% consisting of first lien investments [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deal activity in the lower middle market was described as modest, continuing the trend of lackluster M&A activity [7] - The company expects continued activity in the lower middle market, albeit at lower levels than before [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on investing in high-quality companies with resilient business models and strong cash flow generation [7] - The management believes the current economic environment may present interesting investment opportunities, particularly in periods of high volatility [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the portfolio's resilience against macroeconomic challenges, noting that most portfolio companies are domestic with limited tariff exposure [11] - The outlook for originations in Q2 2025 is positive, supported by a strong investment pipeline [12] Other Important Information - The company declared a total dividend of $0.54 per share for Q2 2025, consistent with the previous quarter [9] - The company ended Q1 2025 with $545.6 million of debt outstanding, with a net debt to equity ratio of 0.7 times [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on portfolio companies - Management indicated that direct exposure to tariffs is limited to just over 5% of the portfolio, and plans are in place to manage risks effectively [24][25] Question: Conditions for M&A market rebound - Management believes that uncertainty is the primary factor affecting the M&A market, and stability rather than the removal of tariffs is needed for a rebound [28][29] Question: Prepayment risk among top-performing companies - Management acknowledged prepayment risk but noted that it is a common aspect of the business, with some companies expected to be refinanced [47][49] Question: Update on distressed investment in Quest software - Management expressed confidence in the long-term outlook for Quest, despite current challenges, and noted that the risk profile is reflected in the investment's valuation [51][52]