Core Insights - The stock market's reaction to events during President Trump's term has been unpredictable, making it difficult for investors to forecast future performance [2][3] - Historical data suggests that stock market performance varies during different years of a presidential term, with specific average returns for each year [5][7] Historical Performance Patterns - Average stock market returns during presidential terms are as follows: - First Year: 6.7% - Second Year: 3.3% - Third Year: 13.5% - Fourth Year: 7.5% [7][8] - The second year of Trump's second term in 2026 may present challenges for the stock market, as historical trends indicate lower performance during this period [8] Economic and Political Context - The unpredictability of Trump's policies, particularly regarding tariffs, has contributed to market volatility [6][9] - Historical theories suggest that the first half of a presidential term is often marked by economic downturns and volatility, while the second half typically sees stronger market performance due to re-election efforts [8][9]