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固定收益部市场日报-20260212
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-12 07:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese/HK properties performed strongly overall, especially VNKRLE bonds due to the reported SZ government rescue plan for Vanke. The deflationary pressure in China continued to ease in early 2026, and mild price reflation is expected in 2026, which should improve corporate profitability and support the capital - market performance of materials and cyclical sectors [2][3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the new CHIFEN 7.4 02/13/29 lowered by up to 1.0pt from RO at par. Chinese AMC space was firm, while HK bank T2s BNKEA/NANYAN widened 5 - 6bps, and Chinese TMTs KUAISH/MEITUA widened 2 - 5bps. Higher - beta names FRESHK 26 - 29s/ZHOSHK 28 closed 7 - 13bps wider. EHICAR 27 dropped 2.1pts, and EHICAR 26 closed 0.3pt lower. VNKRLE 27' and 29' surged 8.0 - 8.8pts on the SZ government rescue plan report. LNGFOR 27 - 32s/FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 edged 0.1 - 0.4pt higher. Seazen Group raised HKD472.3mn (cUSD60.4mn) through a private share placement. LASUDE 26 rose 1.5pts, NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex gained 0.2 - 0.9pt, and FAEACO 12.814 Perp closed 0.8pt higher. In SE Asian space, PTTGC 31 - 52s widened 1 - 5bps, PTTGC Perps leaked 0.1 - 0.2pt, VLLPM 27 - 29 were down 1.0 - 1.8pts, and SMCGL Perps were 0.1pt higher. In KR space, POHANG/SKBTAM/HYNMTR/LGENSO stabilized. In JP space, there were selling flows on 10yr bank papers, Japanese insurance subs edged 0.1pt firmer, and Yankee AT1s leaked 0.1 - 0.3pt. In the Middle East, BSFRs were 0.1pt lower to 0.1pt higher, and long - end KSAs traded up to 0.4pt higher [2]. - This morning, MEITUA/KUAISH recovered to 3 - 5bps tighter. There was better selling on FRESHKs, FAEACO 12.814 Perp gained 1.6pts higher, EHICAR 26 dropped 2.3pts, and ACPM 4.85 Perp/HYSAN 4.85 Perp were 0.6 - 0.8pt lower. VNKRLE 27' and 29' edged 0.1 - 0.2pt higher after yesterday's jump [3]. - In the LGFV space, there was deployment demand from institutions, lifting offers and driving yields tighter. Non - LGFV CNH papers remained afloat due to cross - border account demand [4]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers | Top Performers | Price | Change | Top Underperformers | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 | 43.4 | 8.8 | EHICAR 12 09/26/27 | 53.3 | - 2.1 | | VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 | 41.5 | 8.0 | VLLPM 7 1/4 07/20/27 | 51.9 | - 1.8 | | TTMTIN 4.35 06/09/26 | 99.4 | 1.9 | NICAU 9 09/30/30 | 103.4 | - 1.2 | | LASUDE 5 07/28/26 | 78.4 | 1.5 | HAOHUA 5 1/2 03/14/48 | 99.9 | - 1.0 | | NWDEVL 10.131 PERP | 80.9 | 0.9 | VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 | 41.5 | - 1.0 | [5] Marco News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P (-0.00%), Dow (-0.13%), and Nasdaq (-0.16%) were lower. The US Jan'26 Nonfarm Payrolls were +130k (higher than the market expectation of +66k), the Unemployment Rate was 4.3% (lower than the forecast of 4.4%), the Average Hourly Earnings in Jan'26 was +0.4% mom (a touch higher than the forecast of +0.3%), and the Crude Oil Inventories was +8.53mn (higher than the market expectation of -0.2mn). UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 - year yield at 3.52%/3.75%/4.18%/4.82% [6]. Desk Analyst Comments - VNKRLE 27' and 29' jumped 8.0 - 8.8pts yesterday and edged 0.1 - 0.2pt higher this morning on the media reports of the SZ government's RMB80bn rescue plan for Vanke, including a RMB20bn share placement. Whether the equity injection is sufficient is under discussion, and the new share issue for a loss - making company needs special regulatory approval. The rescue plan is in line with the view that the central government doesn't want another high - profile default in the property sector. The SZ government, through SZ Metro, has been incentivized to support Vanke's refinancing and maturity extension [7]. - In late Jan'26, Vanke secured consents on onshore bonds. SZ Metro provided a 3 - year loan of up to RMB2.4bn to Vanke. Fitch upgraded China Vanke to CC from RD and affirmed Vanke HK's CC rating [8]. - Vanke can turn to alternative funding channels like long - term operating loans or CBICL - guaranteed bonds secured by IPs. As of Jun'25, the book value of Vanke's IPs was cRMB152bn, and c48% of IPs remained unencumbered, which could secure additional financing of cRMB36bn. The total o/s onshore and offshore bonds of Vanke is cRMB27bn [9][10]. - There are hold recommendations on VNKRLEs. The total outstanding amount of Vanke's USD bonds is USD1.3bn, and the next offshore maturity is VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 in Nov'27. Estimated NPVs for VNKRLEs are low - 60 to high - 70 and high - 50 to low - 70, respectively [11]. China Economy - China's deflationary pressure continued to ease in early 2026. CPI slowed to 0.2% YoY in Jan due to a high base effect and volatile food pricing. Core inflation remained robust driven by durable goods, tourism, and jewellery prices. PPI beat market expectation as price relation in upstream sectors passed through, while PPI of consumer goods remained subdued. Mild price reflation is expected in 2026, and CPI and PPI are expected to reflate from 0.1% and - 2.6% in 2025 to 0.9% and 0.5% in 2026. Further demand - side policies are expected to address the imbalance [12]. - Food price dynamics and base effects drove the shift in headline CPI. CPI YoY moderated to 0.2% in Jan from 0.8% in Dec, slightly below the market expectation. Sequentially, CPI remained flat at 0.2% MoM. Food prices showed weaker - than - normal seasonality, pork prices had 1.2% MoM growth, fresh vegetable prices dropped - 4.8% MoM, and vehicle fuel prices declined 1.2% MoM. Headline CPI is expected to rebound to 1.1% in Feb [13]. - Core CPI remained robust as durable goods price reflated. Core inflation edged down to 0.8% YoY in Jan from 1.2% in Dec due to the base effect, while its MoM expanded to 0.3%. Durable goods saw notable price reflation, other supplies and services including gold jewellery surged 2.7% MoM, service price growth edged up to 0.2% MoM, medical services continued reflation, and housing rent dropped 0.1% MoM [14]. - PPI sustained its recovery momentum. The YoY contraction of PPI narrowed to - 1.4% in Jan from - 1.9% in Dec, beating market expectations. The MoM growth reached 0.4%, the highest in 28 months. The extraction sector dropped 1.7% MoM, raw materials and processing sectors rose 0.7% and 0.5% MoM, AI - related and anti - involution sectors saw price increases, while downstream sectors remained subdued [15][16]. Offshore Asia New Issues - There were no offshore Asia new issues priced or in the pipeline today [19][20]. News and Market Color - Yesterday, 72 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB50bn. Month - to - date, 858 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB690bn, a 615.7% yoy increase. Sales of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China slumped 18.9% yoy in Jan'26. First Pacific's Meralco will spend USD4.65bn on network upgrades and service expansion. Fosun - owned insurer weighs Lisbon listing at more than USD3.6bn valuation [21]. Company - Specific News - Seazen Group raised HKD472.3mn (cUSD60.4mn) through a private share placement to help repay FTLNHD 4.5 05/02/26 [26]. - Medco Energi Internasional's arm was awarded the operatorship of Cendramas offshore field in Malaysia by Petronas [26]. - Moody's affirmed Meituan's Baa1 ratings and revised outlook to negative from stable due to competition in the food delivery business [26]. - Petron Malaysian unit flagged a potential financial hit due to tropical storm Senyar [26]. - Petronas launched a bidding round for nine exploration blocks across Malaysia [26]. - Samsung Heavy won a USD321mn deal to build two containerships for an African buyer [26]. - AIIB will provide up to USD250mn on - lending facility to Shriram Finance [26]. - Santos flagged a USD137mn impairment loss in 2025 [26]. - West China Cement settled tender offer for WESCHI 4.95 07/08/26, with USD51.976mn remaining outstanding [26].
固定收益部市场日报-20251110
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-11-10 08:39
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Asia IG space was unchanged to 2bps tighter overall this morning, led by MEITUAs and CCAMCLs [4] - China's exports contraction in Oct underscores rising growth pressure in 4Q, and the country is on track for price reflation [4] - Macau gaming bonds are considered lower - beta and good carry plays, with MPEL and STCITY being top picks [10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Last Friday, new CCAMCL 28 and CCAMCL Float 30 tightened 6bps from RO at T + 80 and SOFR + 100 respectively. Sellers were seen on existing CCAMCL 27 - 28s. The secondary China IG space was 1 - 4bps wider [2] - The MEITUA curve widened by 2 - 4bps. NSINTW 41 was 4bps wider, and the rest of TW lifers traded 1 - 2bps wider. NWDEVLs were 0.7pt lower to 1pt higher [2] - EHICAR 26 - 27 were 0.3pt higher. EHICAR is preparing to refinance EHICAR 26 - 27 through onshore loans and a new offshore bond issuance [2] - In Macau gaming, MGMCHI 26 - 31s/SANLTD 27 - 31s/STCITY 28 - 29s/ WYNMAC 27 - 34s were unchanged to 0.1pt higher, while MPEL 27 - 32s were 0.3pt lower to 0.1pt higher [2] - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 edged 0.5 - 0.7pt higher, and GRNLGR 29 lost 2.2pts [2] - In Korea space, HYNMTRs/KORELEs traded two ways but closed largely unchanged. Japan IG space was unchanged to 3bps wider with selling flows on NTT/KUB [2] - Japanese and Yankee AT1s insurance hybrids were stable. The SEA IG space was unchanged to a touch wider. Small buying was seen on OCBCSP 35s from PBs. MEDCIJ 26 - 30s were 0.1pt lower to 0.1pt higher [2] - VLLPM 27 - 29s were 0.8pt lower to 0.2pt higher [2] - There were thin two - way interests in LGFVs. RMs continued to seek CNH onshore AAA - guaranteed issues, while lower - yielding CNH names remained heavy. Higher - yielding LGFVs remained sporadic. CDECST 6 1/2 11/18/27 gained 0.9pt [3] Desk Analyst Comments - NWDEVL launched holistic exchange offers for all of its 5 perps and 6 USD bonds with a total outstanding amount of cUSD6.8bn to exchange into a new perp with an initial coupon rate of 9% and a bond due 2031 with a coupon rate of 7%. The maximum new perp and bond to be issued will be USD1.9bn [8] - The exchange considerations include 2 cash pts for perp holders but no upfront cash for bondholders. Exchanging perps is NWD's priority, and if the exchange offers succeed, it will help NWD reduce net debts and net coupon payments by 7 - 7.5% and c1% respectively on a pro - forma basis [8] - MPEL and STCITY had solid 3Q25 results, and their active liability management supports their credit profiles. MPEL and STCITY are top picks in the Macau gaming sector, and WYNMAC 27 and 29 are yield pick - up plays [10] - In 3Q25, MPEL reported an 11.4% yoy increase in operating revenue to USD1.3bn and adj. EBITDA up 16.3% to USD352mn. However, its GGR market share declined [13] - COD Macau delivered strong adj. EBITDA in 3Q25, up 27.1% yoy to USD207mn. Hotel occupancy improved, and RevPAR increased [14] - Studio City's adj. EBITDA up 12.8% yoy to USD105mn in 3Q25, supported by higher mass table hold and strong slot performance. Non - gaming revenue was solid [15] - MPEL closed some satellite casinos and Mocha clubs in Sep'25, and more closures are expected. Resource reallocation is expected to have an immaterial impact on operating performance [16] - Near - term revenue growth catalysts for MPEL include newly opened facilities and ongoing conversions. As of Sep'25, MPEL held USD1.5bn cash and USD2.6bn undrawn facilities [17][18] - Total debts of MPEL stood at USD7.5bn as of Sep'25. Studio City repaid a bond in 3Q25, and MPEL redeemed bonds in Sep'25, reducing near - term refinancing risk [19] Macro News Recap - Last Friday, S&P (+0.13%), Dow (+0.16%) and Nasdaq (-0.21%) were mixed. 2/5 year UST yield was lower, and 2/5/10/30 year yield was at 3.55%/3.67%/4.11%/4.70% [7] China Economy - China's exports slumped to negative in Oct, with notable drops to developed countries and moderation to emerging markets. Trade surplus dropped 5.9% to US$90.1bn, indicating 4Q25 GDP faces downward pressure [21][22] - Imports moderated in Oct, dragged by intermediate products. The narrowing trade surplus and weaker durable goods consumption weighed on growth [24][25] - China is expected to face growth headwinds in 4Q, and policymakers may introduce more moderate easing measures. Export growth is expected to decelerate from 5.9% in 2024 to 3% in 2025, and import growth may slow down from 1.1% to 0.5%. USD/RMB rates may appreciate [21][26] - China's CPI YoY recovered to 0.2% in Oct from -0.3% in Sep, above market expectation. Core CPI continued to pick up, and food price increased. PPI marked the first positive MoM growth in a year and narrowed its YoY contraction [28][29] - Demand - driven reflation is likely to be more sustainable than supply - induced price increases. Policymakers may enhance fiscal support for households and the real estate sector in 4Q25. A 10bps LPR cut and 50bps RRR cut are expected by the central bank in Nov or Dec [32][33] Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced: Jingfa Overseas Investment issued 82mn USD in 3 - year bonds with a 4.3% coupon and was priced at 4.3%, unrated [35] - Pipeline: The Government of HKSAR plans to issue 3 - year bonds, rated Aa3/AA +/AA - [36] News and Market Color - Last Friday, 59 credit bonds were issued onshore with an amount of RMB51bn. Month - to - date, 447 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB512bn, a 42.3% yoy increase [37] - Danantara will invest IDR 20tn (cUSD1.2bn) to build chicken farms in Indonesia [37] - Dalian Wanda will open four Wanda Plazas in Dec'25 [37] - ReNew secured USD331mn in debt financing from the Asian Development Bank for a renewable project [37] - JSW Group plans to set up a battery cell manufacturing joint venture in India [37] - Nomura scraps the plan to reactivate the London proprietary trading desk [37] - Media reported NWD has no plans for another LME, and NWD/Chinachem's K11 Art Mall sale talks are on hold [37] - Power Finance 1HFY26 interest income rose 12.8% yoy to INR563.3bn (cUSD6.4bn) [37] - SJM's satellite casino Casino Legend Palace will stop operation on 12 Nov'25 at 11.59pm [37] - Nvidia asks TSMC to ramp up chip supplies [37] - Thai Oil 9M25 EBITDA fell 25.2% yoy to THB11.6bn (cUSD359mn) [37] - Vedanta Resources formed a new US - based unit to control mines in Zambia, and Adani Enterprises is the highest bidder to acquire Jaiprakash Associates [37]