Core Insights - The recent selloff in reputable software stocks may tempt investors to buy at perceived bargains, but experts advise caution against purchasing stocks at new lows [2][3] - Analysts suggest that pullbacks from new highs are generally better investment opportunities than drops to new lows, as momentum can be a risky factor [3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - Well-regarded software stocks like Adobe, Salesforce, Intuit, and Workday are currently trading near 52-week lows, prompting discussions about potential buying opportunities [2] - Broad market indexes are near record highs, which may encourage investors to hunt for bargains, but some discounts may be justified [3] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Wall Street experts warn against the strategy of "buying new lows," citing a history of investment mistakes associated with this approach [4] - A study from Erasmus University and Northern Trust indicates that stocks with positive price momentum tend to continue performing well, while those with weak momentum tend to decline [5] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Experts recommend waiting for price stability before considering investments in stocks that have recently hit new lows [5] - Deutsche Bank's macro strategist notes a pattern of sharp sell-offs followed by quick recoveries, suggesting that the situation may differ for stocks retreating from 52-week highs [5]

Summary of J.P. Morgan Commodity Market Positioning & Flows Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global commodity market, specifically analyzing open interest values and investor positioning across various sectors including energy, precious metals, base metals, and agricultural commodities [3][7][10]. Key Points and Arguments Global Commodity Market Trends - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest declined by **1.0% week-over-week (WOW)**, decreasing by **$14 billion** to **$1.47 trillion**, falling below the 10-year seasonal high [3][7]. - The net investor position across global commodity futures markets decreased by **3.3% WOW**, amounting to **$124 billion** as of August 12 [3][14]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Energy Markets**: - Open interest value in energy markets decreased by **$6 billion WOW**, marking the third consecutive weekly decline, primarily due to price weakness amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [3][20]. - Global oil demand growth is tracking at **0.92 million barrels per day (mbd)**, slightly below the estimated **0.94 mbd** for the year-to-date [3]. - **Precious Metals**: - Open interest in precious metals markets fell by **5.9% WOW** to **$245 billion**, driven by significant outflows from gold markets totaling **$9.7 billion** [3][25]. - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) continued its gold buying streak, adding **2 tonnes** to its reserves in July, with year-to-date purchases reaching **21 tonnes** [4]. - **Base Metals**: - Open interest in base metals increased by **2.3% WOW** to **$175 billion**, with net inflows concentrated in copper and nickel [6][24]. - **Agricultural Commodities**: - Open interest value in agricultural markets rose by **1.4% WOW** to **$330 billion**, driven by rising prices in grains and oilseeds [6][27]. - The USDA reported record high US corn and soybean yields, with corn at **188.8 bushels per acre** and soybeans at **53.3 bushels per acre** [6]. Price Momentum and Market Signals - Price momentum across commodities was mixed, with declines in most metals and energy markets, while agricultural commodities showed increased momentum [6][47]. - Positive price momentum signals were observed for **CBOT Soybeans** and **ICE Coffee**, while short-term sell signals emerged for **ICE EUA's**, **COMEX Gold**, and **LME Lead** [6][47]. Investor Positioning - Managed Money net length in COMEX Gold futures decreased by **5.7k contracts** to approximately **148k contracts net long**, indicating a cautious investor sentiment [3][15]. - The net long position of Investment Funds in European Union Allowances (EUA's) increased by **39% WOW** to **28,856 lots** as of August 8 [6][23]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring Federal Reserve Chair Powell's comments at Jackson Hole, particularly regarding gold markets, as sticky inflation suggests limited easing from the Fed [3]. - The report also cautions about potential short covering risks across grain, cotton, and sugar markets due to weak investor positioning [6]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current state of the global commodity market, highlighting key trends, sector-specific insights, and investor behaviors that could influence future market movements.

Core Insights - The Driehaus strategy, known as "buy high and sell higher," is highlighted as an effective method for selecting top momentum stocks, with Intuit Inc. (INTU) and Ferrari N.V. (RACE) identified as current picks using this strategy [1][8]. Driehaus Strategy Overview - Richard Driehaus emphasized a preference for investing in stocks that are increasing in price rather than those in decline, which aligns with the philosophy of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) that uses the percentage 50-day moving average as a key criterion [2][4]. - The strategy incorporates momentum indicators such as positive relative strength and the percentage change in the 50-day moving average, indicating an uptrend when the stock price is above its 50-day moving average [3][7]. Screening Parameters - Stocks selected for the Driehaus strategy must have a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) and a Momentum Score of A or B, with research indicating that these criteria enhance upside potential [5][9]. - Key parameters include: - Last 5-year average EPS growth rates above 2% [7] - Trailing 12-month EPS growth greater than 0 and above industry median [7] - Last four-quarter average EPS surprise greater than 5% [7] - Positive percentage change in the 50-day moving average and relative strength over 4 weeks [7]. Selected Stocks - Intuit Inc. (INTU) has a Momentum Score of B and an average earnings surprise of 12.2% over the last four quarters [8][10]. - Ferrari N.V. (RACE) holds a Momentum Score of A with an average earnings surprise of 10.8% across the last four quarters [8][11].