Summary of Conference Call on China Semiconductor Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Semiconductor** industry, highlighting the performance and outlook for 2025, particularly the first half and the anticipated challenges in the second half of the year [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Performance**: - China semiconductor companies reported better-than-seasonal sales in **1Q25**, with a sequential sales decline of **8%** for fabless and IDMs, compared to a normal seasonal decline of approximately **15%** [3][4]. - The gross margins for fabless and IDM subsectors increased by **1 percentage point (ppt)** and **2 ppts** respectively, marking significant recoveries since **2021** [3][7]. 2. **2Q25 Expectations**: - Most companies expect sales growth in **2Q25** to align with seasonal trends, projecting an increase of **10-15%** sequentially [3][4]. 3. **Demand Concerns for 2H25**: - There are rising concerns regarding demand in the second half of **2025**, with expectations of flat sales compared to normal seasonality due to fading pull-in demand and diminishing subsidy effects [1][3][22]. - Factors contributing to this concern include: - Potential expiration of the **90-day tariff truce** affecting export orders [23]. - Limited growth in smartphone sales, indicating a fading subsidy effect [23]. - Anticipated demand weakness for solar systems post-subsidy cut-off [23]. - Elevated inventory levels leading to potential price pressure [24]. 4. **Subsector Preference Order**: - The preferred investment order within the semiconductor subsectors is: **WFE > OSAT > Foundry > IDM > fabless** [1][3]. - **AMEC** is identified as the top pick in the WFE sector, while **JCET** is favored among OSAT players due to elevated utilization and acquisition strategies [1][3][37]. 5. **Market Share Projections**: - Local WFE suppliers are expected to capture **50%** market share by **2030**, up from approximately **20%** in **2024** [3]. 6. **Investment Strategy**: - The report suggests a selective approach towards fabless players due to demand uncertainty and potential margin pressures in **2H25** [3][37]. - A cautious stance is recommended for Android smartphone component suppliers like **Maxscend**, given limited unit growth and potential price pressures [37]. Additional Important Insights - The **A-share semiconductor index** has declined by **1%** year-to-date, outperforming the tech index and CSI 300 by **3%** and **1%** respectively, currently trading at a **47x forward P/E**, which is around the average historical valuation [37]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and pricing strategies as they could significantly impact the market dynamics in the latter half of **2025** [24][25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China semiconductor industry, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.