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The 'Trump Trade' scorecard, one year after his election win
Business Insiderยท 2025-11-06 20:13
Crypto - The "Trump Trade" in crypto has been successful, with Bitcoin up 36% and Ethereum up 23% over the last year, despite recent pullbacks [2][3] - Trump's pro-crypto stance included dismantling the crypto fraud investigations team and establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve [3] - The pardoning of Binance chief Changpeng Zhao signifies the end of the Biden administration's "war on crypto," and Trump's family has profited significantly from crypto investments [4] US Stocks - Broad US stock indexes have performed well, with the S&P 500 up 13%, although the journey has been volatile due to unexpected tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties [9][10] - Trump's initial tariff announcement caused a 12% drop in the S&P 500, but a subsequent rally led to a 35% increase since April 8, despite average tariff levels remaining higher than anticipated [10] - The S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index is down 9%, while the S&P Clean Energy Transition Index has risen by 42% [11] International Stocks - Investors betting against international stocks were incorrect, as international assets have outperformed US stocks, with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF up 22% and the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF up 18% [12][13] Tesla Stock - Tesla's stock price surged by 57% post-election, driven by CEO Elon Musk's support for Trump, despite volatility and challenges related to Musk's government position [14][15] Bonds - The bond market reacted to Trump's election by selling off, with yields on 10-year Treasury bonds rising about 17 basis points immediately after the election [16] - Although the initial sell-off was justified, bond yields have since fallen back to around 4%, indicating that those who sold bonds may have missed out on gains [17]