Probabilistic Mass
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The Saturday Spread: How a Little-Known Options Strategy Targets Asymmetric Upside (ORCL, NEE, IRM)
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-20 15:15
Oracle (ORCL) - The analysis of Oracle's stock performance indicates that a 10-week strand of pricing data alone does not provide a reliable performance probability for other weeks, but a distribution of multiple 10-week sequences reveals risk geometry for smarter decision-making [1][2] - The Expected Move calculator for the Feb. 20, 2026 options chain suggests an implied volatility range for ORCL stock between $167.79 and $216.15, although the exact landing price within this range remains uncertain [7] - The current quantitative signal shows that ORCL stock has printed only three up weeks in the past 10 weeks, leading to a projected forward 10-week return range of $190 to $215, with the thickest probability mass between $200 and $205 [9] NextEra Energy (NEE) - NextEra Energy, the world's largest electric utility holding company by market cap, has underperformed this year, with its stock rising only 11% since January compared to a 16% increase in the S&P 500 [11] - The Expected Move calculator projects a price range for NEE stock between $74.26 and $84.82 for the Feb. 20 options chain, with an expected move of ±6.64% from the anchor price of $79.54 [12] - A distributional analysis indicates that NEE stock is likely to range between $78 and $83 over the next 10 weeks, with the thickest probability mass between $80 and $81.70 [13] Iron Mountain (IRM) - Iron Mountain, a company in the data protection and recovery services industry, has seen its stock decline by 24% since the beginning of the year, presenting a potential contrarian investment opportunity [16] - The Expected Move calculator for the Feb. 20 options chain indicates an anticipated price range for IRM stock between $72.59 and $87.59, reflecting a projected 9.36% move in either direction from the anchor price of $80.09 [17] - A distributional analysis suggests that IRM's forward 10-week returns are likely to range between $79 and $84.60, with price clustering around $82.30, while the current 3-7-D sequence indicates a range of $75 to $98, with robust probability mass up to around $92 [18][19]