Model Calibration Importance - Modern neural networks can be misleading due to overconfidence in predictions [1][2] - Calibration ensures predicted probabilities align with actual outcomes, crucial for reliable decision-making [2][3] - Overly confident but inaccurate models can lead to suboptimal decisions, exemplified by unnecessary medical tests [3] Calibration Assessment - Reliability Diagrams visually inspect model calibration by plotting expected accuracy against confidence [4] - Expected Calibration Error (ECE) quantifies miscalibration, approximated by averaging accuracy/confidence differences across bins [6] Calibration Techniques - Calibration is important when probabilities matter and models are operationally similar [7] - Binary classification models can be calibrated using histogram binning, isotonic regression, or Platt scaling [7] - Multiclass classification models can be calibrated using binning methods or matrix and vector scaling [7] Experimental Results - LeNet model achieved an accuracy of approximately 55% with an average confidence of approximately 54% [5] - ResNet model achieved an accuracy of approximately 70% but with a higher average confidence of approximately 90%, indicating overconfidence [5] - ResNet model thinks it's 90% confident in its predictions, in reality, it only turns out to be 70% accurate [2]

Technology & Memory - The system uses AI and probability algorithms to generate memories from data, which may include biases [4][9][11] - The AI system aims to recreate people as they were, not just the nice parts, acknowledging that memory is biased and subjective [14] - The technology not only recreates old memories but also improves current working memory [16] Ethical & Philosophical Implications - The system's generated memories may not be the truth, but neither is memory itself [14] - The question arises whether rebuilding memories rebuilds the true self [7] - The technology raises concerns about who owns the archive of memories and its potential for misuse [8] Emotional & Psychological Impact - The process of reliving memories can be troubling and can taste like sick [4][13] - The system can generate new memories from data, leading to uncertainty and questioning of reality [5] - The technology can evoke strong emotional reactions, including fear, anger, and confusion [10][16]

In Texas Holdem, each player is dealt two cards face down. The best possible starting hand is two aces. When you have two aces and you're up against any other pair, the chances that aces will win is 80% of the time.Even though you'll lose 20% of the time, you're supposed to go allin with aces 100% of the time. The times that you lose doesn't mean that going allin with aces was a bad decision. Life is also similarly probabilistic in nature as there are no guarantees and no such thing as a sure bet.Start view ...

Principles for Success - Hard work is essential, approached through enjoying the work or incentivizing oneself for less desirable tasks [5][6][7] - Setting a clear and easily understandable vision is crucial for guiding efforts [7][8] - Planning involves breaking down the vision into actionable steps and scheduling time for them [9][10][11] - Dedication, not just motivation, is key to overcoming obstacles and persisting through challenges [12][13][14] Overcoming Obstacles - Focus on what is within one's control and avoid dwelling on uncontrollable factors [17] - It's acceptable to have unproductive days; self-compassion is important [18] - Seeking help from others can provide solutions and support when facing difficulties [19][20] Actionable Steps - Define a specific goal, identify the bottlenecks preventing its achievement, and seek solutions for those bottlenecks [21][22] - Take one actionable step each day, even if it's just a small increment of additional effort [23][24]

Risk Assessment - The odds of being struck by lightning indoors with open windows are higher than winning the lottery [1]

Risk Management - Forecast contracts without disciplined sizing, diversification, and a demonstrable edge can become high-stakes gambles [1] Investment Strategy - Forecast contracts can be a low-cost way to express well-researched probability views [1]

Generative AI - Temperature 参数影响生成文本的随机性，低温接近贪婪生成 [1] - 高温使概率分布更均匀，产生随机性更高的输出 [1]

Core Argument - The analysis suggests that relying on data and probability leads to better outcomes than trusting intuition, both in games like Monopoly and in real-life decisions [2][3][14][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing patterns, understanding probabilities, and managing resources wisely for success [3] - The study highlights that emotions can often override logic, leading to suboptimal choices, and advocates for resisting impulse and embracing calculation [13][14] Monopoly Insights - The analysis indicates that the orange property set (St James Place, Tennessee Avenue, and New York Avenue) is statistically a better investment than Boardwalk due to its higher landing rate [4][5] - The report points out that dice rolls are not entirely random, with certain numbers (5, 6, 7, 8, and 9) appearing more frequently, influencing property prioritization [6][7] - The study suggests that limiting the supply of houses to three can be a strategic move to create scarcity and control, similar to real-world examples like Birkin bags [7][8][9] Cognitive Biases - The analysis references the availability heuristic, where easily recalled events are overestimated, leading to poor decisions, such as overvaluing Boardwalk due to its high rent [10][11][12] Investment Strategy - The report draws a parallel between Monopoly and stock market investing, advocating for analysis and research over emotional decisions, as exemplified by investors like Warren Buffett [14][15]