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华安证券:给予迎驾贡酒买入评级
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-05-04 11:10
Core Viewpoint - The company has released its 2024 annual report and Q1 2025 report, indicating a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, while maintaining a "buy" rating for the stock [1][2][8]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025: Revenue of 2.047 billion (-12.35%), net profit attributable to shareholders of 829 million (-9.54%), and non-recurring net profit of 816 million (-9.48%) [2]. - Q4 2024: Revenue of 1.830 billion (-5.00%), net profit attributable to shareholders of 583 million (-4.91%), and non-recurring net profit of 569 million (-8.42%) [3]. - 2024: Revenue of 7.344 billion (+8.46%), net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.589 billion (+13.45%), and non-recurring net profit of 2.566 billion (+14.93%) [4]. Revenue Breakdown - Q1 2025: Revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor decreased by 8.6% and 32.1% respectively, with mid-to-high-end liquor accounting for 87.7% of total liquor revenue, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - 2024: Mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increased by 13.8%, while ordinary liquor revenue decreased by 6.5%, with mid-to-high-end liquor accounting for 81.6% of total liquor revenue, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Profitability Analysis - Q1 2025: Gross margin increased by 1.4 percentage points to 76.5%, primarily due to product mix upgrade, with net profit margin rising by 1.2 percentage points to 40.5% [6]. - 2024: Gross margin increased by 2.6 percentage points to 73.9%, with net profit margin rising by 1.2 percentage points to 35.3% [6]. Market Dynamics - Q1 2025: Revenue plus change in contract liabilities decreased by 8.6%, and cash sales declined by 5.3%, indicating intensified competition affecting channel collection [7]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains a positive long-term operational trend, driven by strong performance in the cave-aged series, despite short-term challenges from series liquor and external markets [8]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 7.405 billion, 7.910 billion, and 8.514 billion respectively, with net profit forecasts of 2.634 billion, 2.865 billion, and 3.138 billion respectively [8].