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TC Energy(TRP) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-31 13:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - TC Energy reported a 12% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA for Q2 2025, raising the 2025 comparable EBITDA outlook to between $10.8 billion and $11 billion, representing a 9% increase over 2024 [8][22] - The company achieved a 26% increase in pre-filed firm transportation rates on the Columbia Gas system due to a settlement with customers [9][32] - The average unlevered after-tax IRR for sanctioned projects increased to approximately 12% year-to-date, up from 8.5% a few years ago [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canada Gas EBITDA increased due to contributions from Coastal GasLink and higher flow-through regulated costs [20] - The U.S. business saw EBITDA growth primarily from the Columbia Gas settlement and new customer contracts [20] - The Power and Energy Solutions business benefited from increased generation output and a higher average realized price of $110 per megawatt hour, up $8 from the previous year [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American natural gas demand is now forecasted to grow by 45 Bcf per day by 2035, up from a previous forecast of 40 Bcf per day, driven by LNG exports and industrial demand [10] - The company is engaged in commercial discussions with over 30 counterparties across the data center value chain, indicating strong customer demand for incremental service [11][56] Company Strategy and Development Direction - TC Energy aims to maximize asset value through safety and operational excellence, execute a high-quality capital-efficient growth portfolio, and maintain financial strength for long-term value creation [27] - The company is focused on brownfield expansions and corridor projects, with an average project size of around $450 million, which allows for better capital efficiency [60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the execution plan for the remainder of the year, expecting to place approximately $8.5 billion of assets into service [22] - The company anticipates a continued upward trend in project returns and a robust pipeline of opportunities driven by increasing customer demand [14][11] Other Important Information - TC Energy's sustainability report highlighted a 12% reduction in absolute methane emissions over the last five years while increasing throughput by 15% [25][26] - The company has a target to reduce methane intensity by 40% to 55% by 2035, based on 2019 levels [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on Columbia Gas settlement rates - Management confirmed a 26% increase in pre-filed firm transportation rates and mentioned that further details on rate steps will be provided in final filings [30][32] Question: Capacity availability for Meta's data center in New Albany - Management indicated strong positioning to serve capacity needs in the New Albany area and ongoing optimization efforts [34][36] Question: 2027 EBITDA guidance considerations - Management expressed confidence in the 2027 EBITDA target range, emphasizing the importance of project execution and backlog management [40][42] Question: Concerns about Canadian pipeline assets and toll revisions - Management reassured that robust subscriptions for services and capacity expansions mitigate concerns about downward pressure on returns [43][46] Question: Project announcements in Pennsylvania - Management highlighted the potential for increased market share and project upsizing in response to growing demand in the region [53][55] Question: Utilization outlook for Northern Mexico assets - Management noted steady increases in utilization rates and the potential for modest capital-efficient expansions [68][70] Question: Canadian energy policy landscape and Bill C5 - Management viewed Bill C5 positively, anticipating benefits for capital deployment and LNG export potential [75][77] Question: Data center project sizes and pipeline consolidation - Management acknowledged trends toward larger projects but clarified that increased capacity does not necessarily imply higher capital costs [83][87] Question: Impacts of U.S. budget reconciliation on project pipeline - Management indicated minimal impact on project execution and cash taxes, emphasizing that growth plans are based on the current regulatory environment [108][110]
TC Energy(TRP) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-31 13:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - TC Energy reported a 12% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA for Q2 2025, raising its 2025 comparable EBITDA outlook to between $10.8 billion and $11 billion, which represents a 9% increase over 2024 [7][20][22] - The company has completed or placed into service approximately $5.8 billion of capacity projects, including the Southeast Gateway and East Lateral Express projects [7][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Canada Gas EBITDA increased due to contributions from Coastal GasLink and higher flow-through regulated costs [18] - The U.S. business saw EBITDA growth primarily from the Columbia Gas settlement and new customer contracts [18] - The Mexico business experienced higher earnings from TGNH, driven by the Southeast Gateway pipeline completion, although offset by lower equity earnings from Sur de Tejas [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American natural gas demand is now forecasted to grow by 45 Bcf per day by 2035, up from a previous forecast of 40 Bcf per day, driven by LNG exports, power generation, and industrial demand [8][9] - The company is engaged in commercial discussions with over 30 counterparties across the data center value chain, indicating strong customer demand for incremental service [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize asset value through safety and operational excellence, execute a high-quality capital-efficient growth portfolio, and maintain financial strength for long-term value creation [24] - TC Energy is focusing on brownfield expansions and corridor projects, with an average project size of around $450 million, which allows for better capital efficiency [56][57] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the execution plan for the remainder of the year, expecting to place approximately $8.5 billion of assets into service, which is about 15% below budget [10][20] - The company anticipates further deleveraging to approximately 4.75 times by 2026, supported by cash flow from new projects [20][63] Other Important Information - The company released its 2025 sustainability report, highlighting a 12% reduction in absolute methane emissions over the last five years while increasing throughput by 15% [22][23] - The report also sets a new methane intensity reduction target of 40% to 55% by 2035, based on 2019 levels [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Details on Columbia Gas settlement rates - Management confirmed a 26% increase in pre-filed firm transportation rates due to the Columbia Gas settlement, with further details to be provided in final filings [27][29] Question: Capacity availability for Meta's data center in Ohio - Management indicated strong positioning to serve capacity needs in the New Albany area, with ongoing optimization efforts [31][32] Question: 2027 EBITDA guidance considerations - Management remains confident in the 2027 EBITDA guidance range of $11.7 billion to $11.9 billion, with ongoing rate cases and project execution being key factors [37][39] Question: Canadian pipeline assets and potential toll revisions - Management does not foresee downward pressure on returns for Canadian pipeline assets, emphasizing the need for capacity expansion to meet market demands [40][42] Question: Project announcements in Pennsylvania - Management highlighted the potential for increased market share in Pennsylvania due to rising demand and ongoing project discussions [49][51] Question: Future project partnerships - Management expressed openness to partnerships for future projects, focusing on capital efficiency and leveraging existing capabilities [110]