Three quick highlights from China: 11 January 2026 | 11:17PM HKT Economics Research China: Three things in China n December inflation slightly higher: China's December inflation increased in year-over-year terms and came in marginally higher than expectations. CPI inflation rose from 0.7% yoy in November to 0.8% yoy in December, mainly due to higher food prices. PPI inflation increased from -2.2% yoy to -1.9% yoy, with mining and smelting of non-ferrous metals showing the largest increases. We expect PPI de ...

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the China property sector is mixed, with several companies rated as "Buy" (1) and others as "Hold" (2) or "Sell" (3) [13]. Core Insights - Sales in November are weak, with an estimated drop of approximately 40% year-over-year for listed companies, leading to a projected 25% decline for FY25, which is about 10% below original targets [1]. - High-end projects in key cities are outperforming, while secondary prices are experiencing accelerated declines, impacting market sentiment [1][2]. - Companies are becoming less proactive in new land investments due to slower sales and higher requirements for sell-through and margin visibility [2]. - Booking margins are expected to stabilize with better new land margins, projecting gross profit margins (GPM) of 15-20% for new land acquisitions [3]. - Profit outlook for FY25 is conservative across most companies, primarily due to pressure on booking margins and the timing of REIT disposal gains [4]. - Luxury retail sales are showing strong same-store sales growth (SSSG), with CR Mixc reporting 10-15% SSSG in 10M25 [5]. - Regulatory changes are being implemented to manage online property information, with little expectation for new monetary stimulus [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - November sales are projected to decline by about 40% year-over-year, with FY25 expected to conclude at a 25% decrease [1]. - High-end projects are performing better than average, while secondary market prices are declining [1]. Land Investment - Companies are setting higher thresholds for new land acquisitions due to slower sales [2]. - COLI has allocated Rmb20 billion for land costs in 10M and is targeting Rmb30 billion for FY [2]. Margins and Profitability - New land margins are expected to improve, with GPM projected at 15-20% for certain companies [3]. - Profit outlook for FY25 remains conservative, with many companies facing margin pressures [4]. Rental and Retail Performance - Luxury retail SSSG is strong, with CR Mixc achieving 10-15% SSSG in 10M25 [5]. - Non-luxury malls are also showing positive growth, albeit at lower rates [5]. Regulatory Environment - New regulations are being introduced to manage online property information, with limited expectations for new stimulus measures [6].