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高盛:中国PBOC在第二季度货币政策会议上语气不那么鸽派
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-30 01:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains an easing bias for the PBOC but adopts a less dovish tone compared to Q1, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy easing [2][3] Core Insights - The PBOC's assessment of the Chinese economy has shifted to "showing positive momentum, with sustained recovery in sentiment," reflecting a relatively optimistic growth outlook [2] - The PBOC plans to implement a "dual cut" in Q4, anticipating a significant slowdown in year-over-year real GDP growth, which includes a 10 basis point cut in the policy rate and a 50 basis point cut in the RRR [2] - The PBOC has emphasized the importance of executing existing policies, particularly targeted easing measures, to support technology innovation and consumption [2][3] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Committee Meeting - The PBOC's Q2 MPC meeting highlighted a less dovish tone than in Q1, focusing on the flexibility of policy easing rather than committing to rate cuts [2] - The report notes a shift in language regarding the property sector from "halting the decline and stabilizing the property market" to "sustaining and consolidating the stable momentum," indicating a more optimistic stance [3] Exchange Rate Management - The PBOC has removed "the three firm commitments" and is now focused on "preventing overshooting risks," suggesting a strategy to allow the CNY to gradually appreciate against the USD [3]