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《强迫症经济学展望》,第2025卷第1期:对不确定性的挑战,与崩溃的关系
OECD· 2025-06-03 04:10
Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward revision of global growth projections, forecasting a decline from 3.3% in 2024 to a modest 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, reflecting a negative outlook for the global economy [33][45]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant increase in trade barriers and economic uncertainty, which negatively impacts business and consumer confidence, leading to a slowdown in trade and investment [32][35]. - Inflation remains a concern, with persistent inflation in services and rising prices for goods due to food price increases, exacerbated by protectionist measures [34][36]. - The report highlights the crucial role of public authorities in addressing uncertainty and stimulating growth through trade agreements and investment in infrastructure [37][40]. Summary by Sections 1. General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation - Global economic prospects are deteriorating due to increased trade barriers and financial conditions, leading to a projected decline in global GDP growth from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026 [45][50]. - The report notes that inflation in G20 countries is expected to decrease from 6.2% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025, with the U.S. being an exception where inflation is projected to rise to nearly 4% by the end of 2025 [45][50]. 2. Reviving Investment for More Resilient Growth - The prolonged stagnation of investment has weighed on potential production growth, with corporate investment hindered by weak demand and high uncertainty [40][41]. - Public investment has rebounded but remains below pre-global financial crisis levels, indicating a need for reforms to stimulate investment [40][41]. 3. Developments in OECD Member Countries and Certain Non-Member Economies - Economic growth has become negative in advanced economies like the U.S. and Japan, primarily due to a surge in imports, while domestic demand indicators remain positive [54]. - The report highlights that growth in production has strengthened in Germany and the UK, partly due to improved export growth, while several European economies have contracted [54].