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华尔街质疑特朗普提议,季报改半年报SEC能批?不确定性增加?更刺激股市波动?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-15 21:16
Core Viewpoint - President Trump's proposal to shift from quarterly to semi-annual earnings reports aims to reduce costs and allow management to focus on operations, but it raises concerns about transparency and market volatility [1][4]. Group 1: Proposal Details - The current quarterly reporting system was implemented by the SEC in 1970 to enhance market transparency following the 1929 stock market crash [1]. - Analysts from TD Cowen estimate a 60% chance that the SEC will adopt Trump's proposal, while Evercore ISI suggests the process could take 6 to 12 months [1][2]. - The SEC's current composition includes three Republican commissioners and one Democrat, with one seat vacant, which may influence the decision-making process [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Investment professionals express concerns that reducing the frequency of earnings reports will decrease accountability and increase market volatility [1][3]. - Sameer Samana from Wells Fargo emphasizes that more frequent disclosures provide better information for investors, and longer reporting intervals could lead to greater uncertainty [2][3]. - Analysts predict that the proposed change could lead to increased market volatility due to reduced transparency and the potential for larger price swings when reports are finally released [4]. Group 3: Potential Impacts - Brian Nick from Newedge Wealth warns that while the proposal aims to focus on long-term growth, it may increase uncertainty in the stock market and lead to higher risk premiums [4]. - Matt Maley from Miller Tabak + Co. notes that the lack of transparency could complicate investor decision-making, while also allowing management to focus on long-term strategies [4]. - Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz supports the idea, suggesting that a more stable approach could reduce market volatility and short-term thinking [4].