Economic Performance - The US real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annualized rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, exceeding the expected 3.3% and surpassing the 3.8% growth in the second quarter [1][8] - The increase in real GDP was driven by consumer spending, exports, and government spending, although it was partially offset by a decrease in investment [1] Consumer Spending - Real personal consumer spending increased by 3.5% in the third quarter, compared to a 2.5% rise in the second quarter [3] - Consumption, particularly from wealthier Americans, was identified as a key driver of economic growth, with AI investment not being a significant factor in the third quarter [2] Trade Balance - Imports fell by 4.7% in the third quarter, a smaller decline compared to a 29.3% drop in the previous quarter [3] - Exports rose by 8.8% in the third quarter, recovering from a 1.8% drop in the second quarter [3] Economic Outlook - The economic report was a positive surprise amid headwinds faced in 2025, including the impact of tariff announcements and a recent government shutdown [4] - The Congressional Budget Office indicated that the government shutdown likely lowered real GDP during its duration, but growth is expected to rebound post-shutdown [4] - The Federal Reserve has noted an improving outlook for growth entering 2026, with solid growth anticipated due to factors like AI and consumer spending [7]

Macroeconomics - Real GDP is defined as (M x V) / P [1] - Onchain real GDP is expected to increase money velocity (V) [1] - Increased money velocity is projected to increase Real GDP [1] Blockchain & Cryptocurrency - The report suggests the onchain implementation of real GDP is imminent [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on global economic indicators, particularly in the context of the services and manufacturing sectors, as well as retail sales trends. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Services PMI**: The global services PMI in August was above its solid average from the past few years, indicating resilience in the services sector [1][4] - **Global Manufacturing PMI**: The global manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in over a year, suggesting a positive trend in manufacturing activities [1][4] - **Retail Sales**: Retail sales in the US have shown surprising strength, performing well globally despite challenges [1][4] - **Global Exports**: Although global exports have declined from recent peaks, they remain elevated compared to last year's figures, despite high US tariffs [1][4] - **Forward-Looking Trade Indicators**: New export orders are in contraction for most major economies, indicating potential future challenges due to "payback" from US frontloading of purchases and tariff-related issues [1][4] Additional Important Content - **Economic Resilience**: The overall resilience observed in Q3 is highlighted, with various indicators suggesting a mixed but generally positive outlook for the global economy [1][4] - **Potential Risks**: The report warns of potential strains in global trade, emphasizing the need for monitoring forward-looking indicators closely [1][4] - **Data Sources**: The insights are derived from Citi Research, S&P Global, and Haver Analytics, ensuring a robust analytical foundation [1][4]

Blockchain Integration - U S Department of Commerce is bringing key macroeconomic data onchain, powered by Chainlink [1] - The U S Commerce Department is publishing GDP data to a blockchain [1] Data Availability - Access to the largest suite of onchain government data, including Real GDP, PCE Price Index, and Real Final Sales [1] - All kinds of economic measures, scrubbed for anonymity, should be published [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June increased by 0.2 percentage points month-on-month to 49.7, slightly surpassing consensus expectations of 49.6, driven by strong fiscal front-loading [7] - Export momentum is weakening, with the new export order index rising only 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, remaining significantly below pre-tariff levels, indicating a potential end to strong US-bound shipping [3][4] - Real GDP growth is expected to decline from 5% year-on-year in Q2 to 4.5% in Q3 due to fading export front-loading and muted stimulus measures anticipated from the government [4][7] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - The June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7, supported by stronger new orders and production, particularly in consumer goods and base materials [2][7] - The construction PMI also saw a notable increase of 1.8 percentage points month-on-month to 52.8, reflecting ongoing fiscal support for infrastructure spending [2] Export Dynamics - The new export orders index showed a slight increase but remains low compared to historical levels, suggesting a slowdown in export activities [3][4] - Container throughput has weakened, indicating a broader decline in export volumes to various destinations [3] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a decrease in real GDP growth to 4.5% year-on-year in Q3, influenced by the diminishing impact of export front-loading and a lack of significant new fiscal stimulus [4][7] - A modest supplementary fiscal stimulus of Rmb0.5-1 trillion is expected to be introduced by the government in late Q3 or early Q4 if economic data continues to show weakness [4]