Core Insights - Coinbase Global (COIN) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 12, with revenues estimated at $1.9 billion, reflecting an 18.8% year-over-year increase, while earnings per share (EPS) are projected at $1.15, indicating a significant 66.1% decrease from the previous year [1][7]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN's fourth-quarter revenues is $1.9 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 18.8% [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings is $1.15 per share, which has decreased by 6.5% over the past 30 days, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 66.1% [1]. - The trading volume is expected to be 279 million, down 36.4% from the same quarter last year [5]. - Transaction revenues are estimated at $1,034 million, reflecting a decline of 33.5% year-over-year [8]. - Subscription and services revenues are projected to be between $710 million and $790 million, with a consensus estimate of $754.65 million [9]. Market Conditions - A weak crypto market and price declines are anticipated to negatively impact trading volume in Q4 2025 [5]. - Both institutional and consumer trading volumes are expected to decrease in the upcoming quarter [5]. Company Strategy and Growth - Coinbase is focusing on international expansion, the rise of derivatives and spot trading, and deeper integration of USD Coin into the crypto ecosystem to support growth in trading fees and stablecoins [6]. - The company plans to prioritize real-world asset perpetuals, specialized exchanges, advanced trading terminals, and the integration of AI and robotics in 2026 [18]. - Coinbase continues to expand its product suite and global footprint by listing new cryptocurrencies and tokenized equities [17]. Financial Health - Coinbase maintains strong liquidity and is reducing debt, improving its total debt-to-capital ratio [19]. - However, the issuance of $2.6 billion in convertible notes poses potential risks related to shareholder dilution and increased financial leverage [19]. Operational Expenses - Increased digital marketing spending is expected to raise sales and marketing expenses to between $215 million and $315 million [10]. - Technology and development expenses are projected to be between $925 million and $975 million due to higher headcount [10]. Valuation and Performance - COIN's stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.35, which is higher than the industry's average of 13.35 [14]. - The stock has underperformed compared to the industry, sector, and S&P 500 in Q4 2025 [13]. Investment Considerations - Given the premium valuation, lowered volatility, and below-average return on equity, it may be prudent to avoid investing in COIN stock at this time [23].