How much does the lack of data factor into what your views are or are not. >> Well, so it's we do have a lot of information about the labor market and particularly the labor market. There's a lot of private sector data. There's surveys.What we're missing is the core of the data. Not having the federal statistics, not having the employment report, household survey, particularly measure of unemployment. And I it's you know the timing is really unfortunate because again as as you noted it's the the Fed began r ...

Group 1: Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended at 4.14% on September 19, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.57% and the 30-year note at 4.75% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965, highlighting the impact of events like the 1973 oil embargo [2] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term ones, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] Group 2: Recession Indicators - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a lead time to recessions ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - The most recent negative spread for the 10-2 occurred from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, while the 10-3 month spread was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [3][5] Group 3: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite steady FFR [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.35%, the lowest since October 2024 [7] Group 4: Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [8] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Group 1: Initial Jobless Claims - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6th reached a seasonally adjusted level of 263,000, marking the highest level in nearly four years and an increase of 27,000 from the previous week, which is the largest weekly jump since last October [1] - The latest initial claims figure significantly exceeded the forecast of 235,000, indicating a potential shift in the labor market [1] - The four-week moving average of initial claims currently stands at 240,500, reflecting an increase of 9,750 from the previous week, which provides a smoother view of the overall trend [2] Group 2: Continuing Unemployment Claims - Continuing unemployment claims, which represent individuals who have filed for unemployment and continued to claim benefits, were at a seasonally adjusted level of 1,939,000 for the week ending August 30th, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the forecast of 1,950,000 [7] - Continuing claims have remained near multi-year highs for several months, indicating persistent challenges in the labor market [8] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The relationship between unemployment claims and recessions is highlighted, with the four-week moving average typically rising at or before the onset of a recession and peaking around its conclusion [3] - The extreme volatility of non-seasonally adjusted data necessitates the use of moving averages to better understand secular trends in unemployment claims [6]