Market Outlook - CNBC's Fed survey participants show growing optimism about the outlook for markets, anticipating a bounce back in the economy and stocks in 2026 [1] - The survey projects the S&P 500 to reach 6133 by year-end, a 15% increase, and 6625 in 2026, nearly a 10% increase from yesterday's close [2] - Equity markets are near all-time highs, anticipating certainty on tariffs, extension of the 2017 tax cuts, deregulation, AI productivity, and Fed easing, potentially leading to economic reacceleration in the second half into 2026 [2][3] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The survey indicates no expectation for a rate cut next month, with the funds rate remaining above the long run neutral rate into 2026 [4][5] - The survey builds in two rate cuts for this year and one for next year [4][5] Fiscal Policy and Deficit - 82% of respondents believe the tax bill will increase the deficit [3] - Opinions are divided on the tax bill's impact on growth, with 29% more optimistic, 29% less optimistic, and 43% believing it doesn't matter [3][4] Inflation and Tariffs - A 43% to 32% margin believes tariffs will be one-time price increases rather than creating broader inflation [6] - 61% of respondents anticipate tariff inflation is yet to come in the months ahead [6]