Global Views: The Dog That Didn't Bark 1. Our projection for the 2025 increase in the effective US tariff rate has stabilized at around 14pp over the past two months, dramatically higher than the 2pp increase in the first Trump administration but significantly below the 20pp we assumed for two hours on April 9. Stabilization in the tariff outlook has helped financial conditions ease and pushed statistical measures of policy uncertainty down from the highs. It has also led us to shave our December 2025 core ...

Welcome back. Fed meetings getting underway today and some growing optimism perhaps among CNBC's Fed survey participants about the outlook for markets. Steve Leeman has the details for us.Steve. Yeah, David. A little bit brighter when it comes to the outlook for stocks with respondence to the CBC Fed survey uh lowering their recession probability and seeing more of a bounce back in the economy uh and stocks in 2026.Uh year end, we're looking at 6133. That's just up one and a half. But things look better for ...

12 June 2025 | 9:22AM EDT US Daily: A Slightly Smaller Tariff Effect (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com G ...

12 May 2025 | 4:04PM EDT US Daily: Raising Our Growth Forecast and Lowering Our Recession Odds in the Wake of a US-China Trade Deal (Hatzius / Mericle / Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.co ...

Cross Asset Research 13 April 2025 Global Portfolio Manager's Digest Whirlwind We provide context and perspective on research across regions and asset classes, this week highlighting our assessment of implied recession probabilities across asset classes; potential tariff impacts on China's economy & CNY; and the current state of the US energy trade. This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports ...