RT plur daddy (@plur_daddy)There hasn't been much discussion of another reconciliation bill recently, so this is incremental.Trump is getting hammered on cost of living concerns. There are three directions he can take.1. Biden Mode: Dig his head in the sand and make the case that the electorate is wrong.2. Volcker Mode: Turn turbohawkish and crush inflation, at the cost of hitting economic growth and financial markets. While this is the only correct option, the issue is the pain is immediate while benefits ...

Fiscal Policy & Appropriations - Congress has struggled to complete appropriation bills on time since the Bill Clinton era, increasing the likelihood of a continuing resolution [4] - The White House may propose another rescissions package later in the fall, potentially after the September 30th vote for a continuing resolution [6] - The White House is considering a strategy to bait Congress into rejecting a rescissions package, which would then be used as justification for impounding funds and initiating a legal battle [6] - Some Republicans are hesitant about another rescissions package, viewing it as Congress relinquishing its power of the purse [7] Tariffs & Rebates - The President mentioned the possibility of a rebate due to increased tariff revenue, but also emphasized paying down debt [9][10] - Senator Josh Hawley proposed legislation to send rebate checks to every working American [11] - Critics argue that tariff revenue is a tax on American citizens, suggesting that lowering tariffs would be a better approach than rebate checks [13][14] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The President's public pressure on the Federal Reserve is viewed as a strategy with limited potential for immediate impact [17] - The President's actions towards the Fed are interpreted as a signal to future Fed chairs to lower rates or face pressure [19][20] Reconciliation Package - The prospect of a reconciliation package 20 is considered unlikely, as the first bill addressed the major priorities of both Congress and the administration [15][16]

Market Outlook & Economic Factors - The speaker turned bullish in late April/early May due to clarity on global tariffs, anticipating a shift towards "fair trade" rather than a "nuclear" approach [2][3] - A potential deal with China is on the horizon, along with progress with Europe, suggesting a favorable outcome on tariffs [4] - The reconciliation bill, expected to pass in early July, will extend current tax regimes and add stimulus through tax breaks on tips, overtime, and social security [4] - Anticipated rate cuts in the latter half of the year could create a "trifecta" for the economy [5] Company Strategy & Performance - The firm is currently at the top 25% of its exposure limits, indicating a high level of confidence in the market [6] Technological Trends - The AI super cycle is driving an acceleration in both topline and earnings [6] - Oracle reported "blockbuster numbers," and 80% of the S&P companies that have reported have beaten expectations [6] - The "Mag 7" companies all beat expectations and accelerated [6]