Regulatory Loosening

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Growth Ahead For UMH And Flagship In Manufactured Housing
Seeking Alphaยท 2025-09-18 14:58
Core Viewpoint - The manufactured housing (MH) sector is well-positioned for growth due to a significant price disparity with site-built homes, regulatory changes, and increasing demand for affordable housing solutions [1][2][12]. Sector Fundamentals - The MH sector has experienced a substantial undersupply due to stringent financial and zoning regulations, which has created a favorable environment for existing players [1][7]. - MH currently constitutes about 10% of the single-family housing market, down from 30% in the 1970s, indicating a historical low in MH building volume [9][11]. - The affordable housing crisis is partly attributed to the low percentage of MH in the overall housing market, prompting regulatory loosening at federal, state, and local levels [7][12][13]. Company-Level Analysis - UMH Properties and Flagship Communities are identified as the best-positioned companies within the MH sector due to their geographic advantages and growth potential [2][39]. - UMH has demonstrated strong same-store NOI growth, significantly outperforming larger mixed-asset MH REITs [30][36]. - Flagship Communities, while smaller, is achieving impressive same-store NOI growth rates of around 12% [33]. Valuation - Current valuations show that UMH is trading at 15.9X AFFO, while larger competitors like Equity LifeStyle Properties and Sun Communities are trading at higher multiples of 22.8X and 21.2X AFFO, respectively [37][38]. - The cheaper valuation and higher growth potential of UMH and Flagship make them attractive compared to their larger peers [39]. Geographic Advantage - UMH and Flagship operate in states that are more favorable to MH development, allowing for more efficient zoning and land acquisition [40][45]. - Kentucky, where Flagship is headquartered, has a high concentration of MH, with 31.6% of its single-family housing consisting of MH [41]. Bull Thesis Summary - The combination of favorable macroeconomic and regulatory factors is expected to drive continued growth in the MH sector, particularly for UMH and Flagship, which are trading at discounted valuations [46][47].