Viewpoint | │ 10 pages China Insurance 2026E Outlook: Life Embarking on a Historic Opportunity; P&C Riding on Continued Regulatory Tailwinds Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Life and Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance in China - **Key Trends**: The life insurance sector is expected to experience significant growth opportunities due to a large volume of bank deposits maturing, estimated at over Rmb70 trillion, and a low-interest rate environment for reinvestment [22][2]. The P&C sector is projected to see a steady premium growth of 4% in 2026E, driven by auto insurance and personal P&C lines [3]. Core Insights Life Insurance Sector - **Growth Potential**: The life insurance industry is entering a "golden era" as retail investors seek higher returns from insurance products due to maturing bank deposits [2]. - **Margin Stability**: Margins are expected to remain stable, with pricing rate adjustments in September 2025 potentially offsetting margin erosion from a shift towards participating products [2][1]. - **Preferred Companies**: Industry leaders such as China Life and Ping An are favored due to anticipated K-shaped growth divergence between larger and smaller insurers amid regulatory tightening [2][1]. Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance Sector - **Premium Growth**: The P&C industry is expected to achieve a 4% growth in premiums in 2026E, supported by regulatory tailwinds and expense rationalization [3]. - **Cost of Risk (CoR) Enhancement**: There is significant room for CoR improvement, driven by regulatory measures including expense management and adjustments in NEV insurance pricing [3]. - **Top Performers**: PICC P&C is expected to benefit the most from these trends, potentially delivering best-in-class results [3][1]. Financial Projections - **China Life Insurance**: Target price raised to HK$38 from HK$27.70, with EPS estimates for FY25E/FY26E/FY27E increased by 105%/48%/46% respectively, reflecting improved investment performance [7]. - **China Pacific Insurance**: Target price increased to HK$44.40 from HK$40.50, with FY25E/FY26E EPS estimates raised by 27%/14% [9]. - **Ping An Insurance**: Target price lifted to HK$79 from HK$68, with slight adjustments to EPS estimates [20]. Regulatory Environment - **Regulatory Changes**: New regulations are being implemented to strengthen supervision over insurers' asset liability management and expense management, focusing on quality-oriented metrics rather than volume [27][28]. - **Impact on Life Insurance**: Regulations will require life insurers to maintain specific liquidity and coverage ratios, which could affect their operational strategies [27]. - **P&C Insurance Regulations**: The P&C sector is seeing a shift towards more stringent expense management and compliance with quality metrics [27]. Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The life insurance market is witnessing a shift towards bancassurance channels as consumers reallocate their wealth [44]. - **Product Mix Changes**: Insurers are increasingly shifting their product mix towards participating products, which may lower the cost of in-force books [41]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The anticipated interest rate hikes in China are expected to enhance investment returns for insurers, further supporting their growth [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the growth potential and regulatory landscape of the life and P&C insurance sectors in China.

Market Outlook - Bitwise predicts new Bitcoin All-Time Highs (ATHs) in 2026 [1] - The forecast is based on institutional inflows and regulatory tailwinds outweighing historical 4-year-cycle bearish factors [1] - Bitwise also anticipates new highs for ETH and SOL, contingent on the CLARITY ACT passing [1] Investment Strategy - Crypto stocks are expected to outperform tech stocks [1]

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant year, but losses towards the end overshadowed the earlier months of innovation and regulatory support [1] - As of November 18, macroeconomic uncertainty has impacted the market [1] Summary by Categories Market Performance - Bitcoin had a massive year with notable gains, but recent losses have raised concerns [1] - The end-of-year losses have overshadowed the impressive performance in the preceding months [1] Innovation and Regulation - The earlier months of the year were characterized by innovation and favorable regulatory developments [1] - Regulatory tailwinds contributed positively to the market dynamics during the year [1] Macroeconomic Factors - As of mid-November, macroeconomic uncertainty is affecting investor sentiment and market stability [1]

Group 1 - Dominion Energy, Inc. is initiated with a Strong Buy rating and a price target of $89, providing regulated electric and natural gas service to over 6 million customers in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions [1] - Moretus Research focuses on identifying companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation, applying a structured and repeatable framework [1] - The research emphasizes rigorous fundamental analysis combined with a judgment-driven process, avoiding noise and overly complex forecasting [1] Group 2 - Valuation methods used by Moretus Research are based on pragmatic, sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure [1] - The research coverage tends to favor underappreciated companies undergoing structural change or temporary dislocation, where dispassionate analysis can lead to asymmetric returns [1] - Moretus Research aims to raise the standard for independent investment research by providing professional-grade insights and actionable valuation [1]

Group 1 - The core business of Mercury General (NYSE: MCY) continues to generate underwriting profits, supported by regulatory tailwinds leading to double-digit rate increases [1] - The company has successfully rebuilt its operations, indicating a strong recovery and growth potential [1] Group 2 - Henriot Capital operates on a quant-driven investment model, emphasizing simplicity and common sense in its approach to building a hedge fund [1] - The investment strategy prioritizes data-driven decisions, minimizing human bias in stock selection [1]