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摩根士丹利:清洁能源技术-参议院最新版和解法案的反馈
摩根· 2025-07-02 03:15
Investment Rating - The Clean Tech industry in North America is rated as "In-Line" [7]. Core Insights - Initial perceptions of the Senate's reconciliation bill were bearish, but subsequent feedback indicates several positive aspects, particularly regarding utility-scale renewables and tax credits [5][9]. - The bill's provisions for projects that have already commenced construction allow them to retain tax credits as originally planned, which is a significant positive for large developers [10]. - There is an expectation of increased demand as developers may rush to meet the 2027 in-service deadline to claim tax credits [11]. - Confidence in power purchase agreement (PPA) prices is high, suggesting that project returns for renewables will remain intact even after tax credits are eliminated [12]. - First Solar (FSLR) is expected to benefit from the full stack of manufacturing tax credits, which could add significant value to its shares [13]. - Clarity on residential solar leasing eligibility has improved, allowing projects to receive tax credits through the end of 2027, positively impacting companies like Sunrun (RUN), Solaredge Technologies (SEDG), and Enphase Energy (ENPH) [14]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The Clean Tech industry is currently experiencing a shift in investor perception due to the latest Senate bill, which has shown some incremental positive feedback compared to earlier drafts [5][9]. Company-Specific Insights - Array Technologies (ARRY.O) is rated "Equal-weight" with a price of $5.90 [69]. - Bloom Energy (BE.N) is rated "Overweight" with a price of $23.92 [69]. - First Solar (FSLR.O) is rated "Overweight" with a price of $165.54, benefiting from potential tax credits [69]. - Enphase Energy (ENPH.O) is rated "Underweight" with a price of $39.65 [69]. - Sunrun (RUN.O) is rated "Equal-weight" with a price of $8.18, positively impacted by residential solar leasing provisions [69].