ESCO Technologies (NYSE:ESE) Q1 2026 Earnings call February 05, 2026 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsBryan Sayler - President and CEOChris Tucker - SVP and CFOKate Lowrey - VP of Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsJon Tanwanteng - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystTommy Moll - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystOperatorday, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the first quarter 2026 ESCO Technologies earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a li ...

28 January 2026 | 9:13PM EST Equity Research AMERICAS US Power Pipeline: Total capacity additions reached 80% of GSe in 2025 with ~50 GW added The pace and sourcing of US power infrastructure is a front and center area of focus for investors given implications for the pace of AI deployment as a driver of our 2.6% CAGR in US power demand through 2030. In this note, we analyze the generation capacity data from the EIA to track currently planned and added capacity. We believe Parts/People availability are amon ...

The AES Corporation (AES), based in Arlington, Virginia, is a global power generation and utility enterprise. It commands a market cap of approximately $10.4 billion and generates, distributes, transmits, and sells electricity. The company’s diversified portfolio spans around 32,109 megawatts (MW) and serves 2.7 million end users globally. Over the past 52 weeks, AES stock has delivered a 30.4% return, decisively outperforming the S&P 500 Index ($SPX), which rose 16.1% during the same period. On a year-t ...

Summary of Investor Presentation: Future of Energy | Asia Pacific Industry Overview - The presentation focuses on the energy sector in the Asia Pacific region, particularly the role of natural gas in meeting rising power demand driven by AI and onshoring trends [1][4][5]. Key Insights - **Power Consumption Growth**: Power consumption is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.5% through 2030, which is 25% faster than the previous decade. Natural gas is projected to meet 15% of the incremental power demand, supporting renewables and nuclear energy [13][16]. - **Natural Gas Supply**: There is a significant glut of natural gas, which is beneficial as Asia is set to absorb a large share of the upcoming supply. This situation is expected to support affordability for policymakers [1][4]. - **AI Demand Impact**: The demand for power is being significantly influenced by the rise of AI technologies, which is driving up power consumption expectations [1][4][9]. Competitive Landscape - **Gas vs. Coal and Renewables**: Natural gas is becoming increasingly competitive with coal and renewables, particularly in the ASEAN region. The cost of gas-based electricity generation is nearing parity with coal, making it a viable option for peak loads [101][107]. - **Market Dynamics**: The presentation highlights that tight power markets globally are leading to higher prices and margins for generators, which is making natural gas a more attractive option [53][57]. Data Center Power Demand - **Growth Projections**: Asia's data center power demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 23% from 2023 to 2030, driven by increased AI inference demand and significant investments in the region [30][33]. - **Capacity Additions**: The region is projected to see nearly 60GW of data center capacity additions by 2030, indicating a substantial increase in power requirements [33][41]. Regional Insights - **Country-Specific Demand Growth**: - China and India are expected to drive significant portions of data center growth in Asia, with China leading due to its focus on chip self-sufficiency and commercialization [41]. - Other countries like Japan, Thailand, and Malaysia are also highlighted as key players in the gas market [22][23]. Economic Considerations - **Power Prices and Market Tightness**: The presentation notes that electricity markets are experiencing tightness, leading to higher power spreads and making natural gas more competitive [51][53]. - **Elasticity of Demand**: The elasticity of LNG consumption is expected to increase, with estimates suggesting that for every US$1/mmbtu decrease in LNG price, there could be an incremental demand increase of 3-3.5 million tons per annum [63][99]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for the energy sector in Asia Pacific is positive, with natural gas playing a crucial role in meeting rising power demands driven by technological advancements and changing market dynamics. The competitive landscape is shifting, favoring gas as a key energy source in the region [1][4][5][13][16].

Summary of Bernstein Energy & Power: 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the European Utilities sector, highlighting its performance and outlook for 2026 - Utilities are trading at a ~9% P/E discount to the broader market, with a projected ~7% EPS CAGR over three years compared to ~11% for the market [3][4] Key Highlights - **Performance in 2025**: Utilities were the second-best performing sector, outperforming the broader market by ~13 percentage points, driven by demand for earnings visibility amid macroeconomic uncertainties and growth prospects in grids and renewables [12] - **Investment Opportunities**: Electric networks (e.g., SSE, National Grid) are seen as offering the best risk-adjusted exposure, while renewables (e.g., EDP, Engie) also present significant opportunities [3] - **Top Picks for 2026**: - **SSE**: Target price of £2,600, with a 19.3% upside, focusing on regulated networks [6][9] - **National Grid**: Target price of £1,300, with a 13.9% upside, benefiting from US operations and RIIO-T3 price control [9] - **EDP**: Target price of €4.60, with a 17.5% upside, strong growth in renewables [9] - **Engie**: Target price of €25.10, with a 12% upside, expected earnings rebound from renewables [9] - **Severn Trent**: Target price of £3,200, with a 14.7% upside, entering a growth cycle in UK water utilities [9] - **RWE**: Target price of €50.00, with a 10.5% upside, improving capital allocation and investment discipline [9] - **Redeia**: Target price of €18.15, with a 19.6% upside, solid earnings growth expected [10] - **EDPR**: Target price of €13.50, with a 12.1% upside, high earnings growth anticipated [10] - **Terna**: Target price of €10.00, with a 10.4% upside, good earnings visibility [10] Least Preferred Stocks - Companies with significant merchant power exposure are viewed unfavorably, including Verbund, Fortum, Solaria, Centrica, and Naturgy [8][11] Market Dynamics - **Commodity Prices**: The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding commodity prices, particularly gas, which could impact power prices in 2026 [17][22] - **Gas Outlook**: European TTF gas prices are projected to decline from €29/MWh in 2026 to €27/MWh in 2029, with potential downward pressure from increased LNG supply [18][25] - **Power Price Sensitivity**: The report outlines the sensitivity of various companies to changes in power prices, indicating that top picks have limited exposure to falling prices [44][47] Regulatory and Policy Environment - The EU ETS carbon price is currently above €87 per tonne, with expectations of tightening supply in 2026 due to reduced emission caps and auction supply [39][43] - The report notes the potential for nuclear life extensions in Spain and Belgium, which could provide additional upside for certain companies [56][59] Conclusion - The European Utilities sector is positioned for defensive growth in 2026, with attractive risk-reward profiles and strong catalysts driven by the energy transition and rising demand from AI and data centers [15] - The sector remains undervalued relative to current electricity prices, with earnings expected to be supported by a stable inflation regime [15]

Core Insights - Meg O'Neill is a prominent figure in the fossil fuel industry, particularly known in Asia and Australia, and has been the CEO of Woodside since 2021 [2][3] - Under her leadership, Woodside has achieved operational excellence and made significant moves, including a billion-dollar acquisition of oil and gas assets from BHP [2][3] - O'Neill has shown ambition by attempting to acquire Australia's largest rival, although she ultimately decided against the deal due to value concerns [3] Company Strategy - O'Neill is recognized for her strong defense of fossil fuels, emphasizing the continued need for oil and natural gas for decades to come [3][5] - BP's recent strategic shift back towards fossil fuels aligns with O'Neill's expertise, making her an appealing choice for leadership as the company aims to reset its strategy [5][6] - Her track record at Woodside demonstrates her ability to enhance existing assets and strategically consider new acquisitions, which may address investor concerns about BP's pace of strategic movement [5][6]

Market Trends & Economic Data - Investors are preparing for more information on the US economy, with stocks, bonds, and the dollar wavering [3] - The week will bring economic data releases, including inflation and jobs reports, influencing future Fed policy [4] - The US Treasury market is debating the extent of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [12] - Delayed announcements of monthly employment and inflation figures due to the US government shutdown are creating a void [13] - There's a debate on whether the economy is transitioning from deleveraging to re-leveraging [40] M&A and Corporate Strategy - The pursuit of Warner Brothers Discovery by Netflix is ongoing, with concerns about job losses and theatrical releases [5] - Netflix co-CEOs are trying to reassure employees about the company's bid for Warner Brothers Discovery, reiterating no business overlap and studio closures [59] - Global M&A activity has been strong, with volumes at $45 trillion, setting up for 2026 to potentially exceed the record year in 2021 [78] - A potential Netflix acquisition of Warner Brothers could be a $827 billion deal [60] - iRobot filed for bankruptcy, with its common stock to be wiped out under the proposed Chapter 11 plan, listing between $100 million and $500 million in assets and liabilities [118][120] Energy & Utilities - National Grid is spending billions of dollars to prepare New York's electric grid for a generational shift, including data centers [93] - National Grid serves over 4 million customers in New York, delivering natural gas and electricity [97] - Cumulative power needs from companies wanting to connect to the New York grid over the next five years are estimated at about 10 gigawatts, tripling in size in one year [99][100] - West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) is down 13%, at $5674 a barrel [92] Cryptocurrency - MicroStrategy acquired almost $1 billion in Bitcoin for a second straight week, despite the cryptocurrency falling [124] - Bitcoin is down 23%, at $86,432 [10][92] - Bitcoin is down about 30% from an all-time high of just over $126,000 in early October [126] Financial Markets Performance - The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all in the red [8][55][56][91][115] - The Bloomberg Mag Seven index is holding onto a gain of 4/10 of 1% [8] - The S&P 500 index is down 1/10 of 1%, lower by six at 620 [9] - The NASDAQ composite index is down 3/10 of 1%, while the Dow Industrials are down 2/10 of 1% [9] - The ten-year Treasury yield is currently at 417%, with the two-year at 350% [9] - Gold is up 4/10 of 1%, at $4314 the ounce [10] - The Russell 2000 index is declining, down 6/10 of 1% [55] - Gold is up $13 the ounce, at $4312, up 3/10 of 1% [56]

Company Overview - Badger Meter, Inc. (NYSE:BMI) specializes in flow measurement, water quality, and control products, serving water utilities and other commercial customers [4] Financial Performance - On November 7, Badger Meter declared a quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share, consistent with its previous dividend, and has been returning value to shareholders through growing dividends for 33 consecutive years [3] - The Board approved a new share repurchase authorization for up to $75 million of the company's outstanding common stock through November 2028, allowing for share purchases in the open market [3] Analyst Insights - On December 8, JPMorgan lowered the price target for Badger Meter to $235 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating, as part of its 2026 outlook on the clean energy market [2] - JPMorgan expects strong performance for utility-scale projects in the renewables space but notes a market shift towards larger, more complex projects and tougher regulations, which may lead to consolidation [2] - Analysts prefer companies with US manufacturing, diverse customers, and solid balance sheets in the current market environment [2] Investment Considerations - Badger Meter is included among the 15 Best Stocks to Buy for the Long Term, indicating positive long-term investment sentiment [1]

Core Insights - Copper prices are experiencing a rebound, climbing back toward record levels due to warnings of significant market shortages as mining operations struggle to meet demand [1][2] - The price of copper has increased over 30% on the London Metal Exchange (LME) this year, driven by mine outages and expectations of rising US imports amid potential tariffs [2][3] - Despite a slowdown in Chinese demand and ongoing stress in the manufacturing sector, long-term investor sentiment remains bullish on copper due to its critical role in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and data centers [3][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The mining industry is facing challenges in ramping up new copper production, necessitating a period of higher prices to stimulate investment [4] - The interplay of growth in AI-driven data centers, electric vehicle expansion, and a global shift toward more accommodative economic policies is expected to bolster copper demand [4] Market Reactions - Copper prices rose by 1.6% to $11,666 per ton, recovering from a previous decline, while other metals like aluminum and zinc also saw slight increases [1][5] - Investors are anticipating a quarter-point interest rate reduction from the Federal Reserve, which may influence market dynamics and borrowing costs [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The AES Corporation has been upgraded to a Buy rating by Argus Research, with a price target of $18, driven by sustainable profit growth and expected improvements in its Renewables segment [2]. Group 1: Company Performance - The AES Corporation reported an adjusted EPS of $0.75 for Q3 fiscal 2025, exceeding estimates of $0.712 and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.6% [4]. - The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, projecting adjusted EBITDA between $2.65 billion and $2.85 billion, and adjusted EPS in the range of $2.10 to $2.26 [4]. - The stock has gained 8% year-to-date in 2025, indicating modest returns [5]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Market Position - As of December 5, approximately 60% of Wall Street analysts rated AES as Buy or better, with a one-year average price target of $15.29, suggesting an upside potential of nearly 10% [3]. - AES is noted to have one of the lowest P/E ratios among the S&P 500 in 2025, positioning it as an attractive investment opportunity [1]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - The company is set to triple its renewables capacity by 2027, indicating significant growth potential in its Renewables SBU [2].