Summary of U.S. Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) - **Forecast**: U.S. BESS deployments expected to grow from 54 GWh in 2025 to 88 GWh in 2030, representing a 10% CAGR [1][9][14] Key Insights Growth Drivers - **Utility-Scale Visibility**: Strong project pipeline with 19 GW of planned inventory for 2025 and 32 GW through Q3 2027, with over 80% of next four quarters' additions already under construction [1][14][20] - **Interconnection Queue**: 356 GW of BESS interconnection requests expected to support growth from 2028 to 2030, even after applying a 70-80% reduction for historical operational rates [1][35] Data Center Demand - **Emerging Demand**: Data centers are increasingly integrating BESS for load flexibility and diesel replacement, with Wood Mackenzie tracking 34 GW across 12 U.S. sites, representing a potential one-third of the utility-scale forecast for 2026-30 [2][10][46][49] Supply Chain Dynamics - **Bifurcation Risks**: FEOC restrictions starting in 2026 complicate supply chains linked to China, with Korean suppliers emerging as credible alternatives. LG Energy Solution (LGES) is scaling up ESS capacity significantly [3][62][76] - **Tariff Impacts**: Tariffs on Chinese cells have fluctuated, impacting project economics, but the threat of re-escalation remains a concern [62][63] Economic Competitiveness - **Cost Analysis**: Utility-scale solar LCOE averages $50/MWh, and adding 4-hour storage raises it to ~$101/MWh, competitive with gas turbine costs [4][62] - **Domestic Content Incentives**: The 45X manufacturing tax credit and domestic content requirements are critical for maintaining project economics, with increasing thresholds from 2026 onward [79][81] Alternative Chemistries - **Emerging Technologies**: While LFP remains dominant, alternative chemistries like zinc-hybrid and sodium-ion are gaining traction for specific applications, particularly where duration and compliance with FEOC rules are critical [5][87][88] Additional Considerations - **Residential Market**: A forecasted decline in residential storage in 2026 due to the phaseout of the 25D residential solar tax credit, followed by a recovery driven by higher attachment rates [55][56] - **C&I Market**: The commercial and industrial (C&I) storage market is expected to grow at a 17% CAGR, albeit from a small base, with California being the primary market [61] Conclusion The U.S. BESS market is poised for significant growth driven by utility-scale projects, data center demand, and evolving supply chains. However, challenges such as regulatory changes, tariff impacts, and competition from alternative technologies will shape the landscape moving forward.