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NETEASE INC(9999.HK)4Q25 PREVIEW:WEAK QUARTER; RELATIVELY TEPID 1H26
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-04 04:52
Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to report weak financial results for 4Q25, with a forecasted 6% year-over-year growth in pure online game revenue and an adjusted net profit of RMB8.4 billion, both missing consensus estimates [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for 4Q25 is projected to be RMB27.7 billion, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase but missing consensus by 4% [3] - Pure online game revenue is expected to reach RMB21.8 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, also missing consensus by 5% [3] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to decline by 14% year-over-year to RMB8.4 billion, missing street expectations by 9% [3] Group 2: Game Development and Operations - The company is focusing on improving resource utilization and allocation efficiency through streamlining new game development and existing game operations [2] - New game pipelines across various genres and platforms are anticipated to contribute incrementally starting from 2H26, despite a stable forecast in 1H26 due to existing franchises [2] Group 3: Operational Costs and Adjustments - Total operating expenses are expected to increase by 11% year-over-year, primarily due to sales and marketing expenses [3] - Adjusted earnings per share estimates for FY2025-27 have been cut by 2-7% due to increased operating expenses and revised game forecasts [2] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "BUY" rating with a revised target price of US$160.0/HK$250.0, based on projected earnings and asset valuations [4] - The valuation includes contributions from stakes in Youdao and Cloud Music, as well as net cash [4]